央行汇率管理工具效果分析及建议

Analysis of the Effectiveness of Central Bank's Exchange Rate Management Tools and Recommendations

近年来我国央行汇率管理工具箱日渐丰富。从实践来看,逆周期因子、外汇储备、离岸央票以及外汇风险准备金工具对于抑制人民币贬值均有一定效果。调节外汇风险准备金既能抑制人民币贬值,也能抑制人民币升值。调节宏观审慎调节参数对于抑制人民币升值有一定效果,而对于抑制贬值效果有限。调节外汇存款准备金率对于抑制人民币升值和贬值效果均不明显。总体来看,汇率管理工具大都只能在短期内起到一定作用,而无法改变人民币汇率原有趋势。未来应进一步完善跨境资本流动监管框架,保持当前外汇储备规模,同时加强央行网站建设,进一步提高货币政策透明度,以提高预期管理的政策效果。

In recent years,the toolbox for exchange rate management by China's central bank has become increasingly diverse.From practice,countercyclical factors,foreign exchange reserves,offshore central bank bills,and foreign exchange risk reserve tools have all had a certain effect on restraining the depreciation of the renminbi.Adjusting foreign exchange risk reserve can not only restrain the depreciation of the renminbi but also restrain its appreciation.Adjusting macroprudential parameters has a certain effect on restraining the appreciation of the renminbi,but its effect on restraining depreciation is limited.Adjusting the reserve ratio for foreign exchange deposits has no significant effect on restraining the appreciation or depreciation of the renminbi.Overall,most exchange rate management tools can only have a certain effect in the short term and cannot change the original trend of the renminbi exchange rate.In the future,the cross-border capital flow regulatory framework should be further improved,the current level of foreign exchange reserves maintained,and the construction of the central bank website strengthened to further enhance the transparency of monetary policy and improve the effectiveness of policy expectations management.