中国城市高质量发展的空间差异、动态演进及影响因素——基于复合生态系统理论视角

Spatial Differences,Dynamic Evolution and Influencing Factors of High-Quality Urban Development in China:Based on the Theory of Complex Ecosystem

高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务,城市作为国家发展的基本空间单元,研究其高质量发展具有理论意义和时代价值。基于复合生态系统理论,本研究构建了城市高质量发展的评价体系,结合Dagum基尼系数、Kernel核密度估计、马尔科夫链及面板回归模型考察了全国284个地级及以上城市2004—2019年高质量发展水平的空间差异、动态演进及影响因素,结论如下:(1)城市高质量发展水平呈稳步提升态势,空间格局呈现出从低水平城市广泛分布向高水平城市“由点及面”连片扩张的跨越式转变。从区域差异来看,各地区域内差异均不断拉大,其中东部最大而西部最小的空间态势被持续“锁定”,区域间差异性持续扩张,东部—西部、中部—西部的差异性始终分列首尾,超变密度是差异性的最主要来源。(2)从分布动态来看,全国范围下城市高质量发展水平高低值各自集聚的“俱乐部收敛”现象逐步凸显,东部和中部地区发展态势与之相似,西部地区则尚未显现,发展的协同性相对较好;从演进趋势来看,各等级城市的“留级”概率远大于向上或向下迁移的概率,且“越级”流动概率极低;考虑空间滞后因素,较高水平城市能有效带动邻近落后城市发展等级的跃迁,而较低水平城市则会对邻接城市产生负向空间溢出。(3)政府干预、环境规制、人力资本和科技创新对城市高质量发展具有显著的正向促进作用,对外开放产生负向效应,但各影响因素的作用强度具有显著地域差异性。

High-quality development is the top task of building China into a modern socialist country in all respects.As the basic spatial unit of national development,studying the high-quality development of cities has both theoretical significance and contemporary value.Based on the theory of compound ecosystem,this paper constructs an evaluation system of urban high-quality development.Combined with Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation,Markov chain and panel regression model,this paper investigates the spatial differences,dynamic evolution and influencing factors of the high-quality development level of 284 prefecture level and above cities in China from 2004 to 2019.The conclusions are as follows.(1)The high-quality development level of cities is steadily improving.The spatial pattern shows a leap forward transformation from the widespread distribution of low-level cities to the continuous expansion of high-level cities“from point to area”.Regarding the regional differences,they are constantly widening,among which the largest spatial situation in the east and the smallest in the west is continuously“locked”,and also continue to expand.The differences between the east-west and the middle-west are always first and last,respectively,and the hypervariable density is the main source of the difference.(2)From the perspective of distribution dynamics,the phenomenon of“club convergence”of high-quality development levels and high-low values of cities nationwide has gradually become prominent.The development trend of the eastern and central regions is similar,the western region has not yet appeared,and the development synergy is relatively good.From the perspective of evolution trend,the probability of“repeating grade”of cities at all levels is much higher than that of upward or downward migration,and the probability of"skipping grade"flow is extremely low.Considering the spatial lag factor,higher level cities can effectively drive the transition of the development level of adjacent backward cities,while lower level cities have negative spatial spillovers to adjacent cities.(3)Government intervention,environmental regulation,human capital and scientific and technological innovation play significant positive roles in promoting the urban high-quality development,while opening up has a negative effect,but the intensity of each influencing factor has a significant regional difference.