山东省县级城市扩展时空演变及影响因素研究

Study on Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Influencing Factors of County-level City Expansion in Shandong Province

为了研究2000—2020年山东省县级城市扩展时空演变格局及其影响因素,使用DMSP/OLS和NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据对山东省县级城市建成区面积进行提取,并采用GWR模型对影响因素及其作用程度进行分析。研究结果表明:2000—2020年山东省县级城市扩展程度呈现出由北向南、由西向东逐渐增加的趋势,且济南市青岛市周围县级城市扩展程度较大;2010年后青岛市周围县级城市扩展程度逐渐超过济南市周围县级城市。2000—2020年影响山东省县级城市扩展的因素包括经济条件、社会条件、人口因素和地形条件,且经济始终占据主导地位,其对县级城市扩展的正向影响由自东向西南呈阶梯状逐渐减小转变成由中部向东西呈阶梯状递增;坡度因素对县级城市扩展量的影响由2000—2015年自东北向西南递减的负相关变成2016—2020年自东北向西南递增的正相关;人口对县级城市扩展的影响在2006—2010年呈现出自东向西递增的负影响,2000—2005年和2011—2015年呈现出自东北向西南递减的正相关,2016—2020年对县级城市扩展的影响自东南向西北递增;医疗卫生水平在2000—2010年和2016—2020年对县级城市扩展量的正相关自西向东递减,2011—2015年为自西向东递增的正影响。

In order to study the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of county-level urban expansion in Shandong province from 2000 to 2020 and its influencing factors,DMSP/OLS and NPP-VIIRS night light data were used to extract the built-up area of county-level cities in Shandong province,and the GWR model was used to analyze the influencing factors and their degrees of action.The results show that from 2000 to 2020,the expansion degrees of county-level cities in Shandong province gradually increase from the north to the south and from the west to the east,and the expansion degree of county-level cities around Jinan and Qingdao are relatively larger.After 2010,the expansion degree of county-level cities around Qingdao gradually exceeds that around Jinan.From 2000 to 2020,the factors that affect the expansion of county-level cities in Shandong province include economic conditions,social conditions,demographic factors and topographic conditions,of which the economy has always occupied a dominant position.Its positive impact on the expansion of county-level cities has gradually decreased from the east to the southwest and increase from the middle to east-west.The influence of slope factor on the expansion of county-level cities has changed from the negative correlation from the northeast to the southwest during 2000—2015 to the positive correlation from the northeast to the southwest during 2016—2020.The impact of population on the county-level urban expansion shows a negative impact from the east to the west during 2006—2010,a positive correlation from the northeast to the southwest during 2000—2005 and 2011—2015,and an increasing impact from the southeast to the northwest during 2016—2020.During 2000—2010 and 2016—2020,the positive correlation of medical and health level on the expansion of county-level cities decreases from the west to the east,and from 2011 to 2015,it increases from the west to the east.