黄河流域水资源供需平衡的动态仿真与模拟

Dynamic Simulation of Water Resources Supply and Demand Balance in the Yellow River Basir

水资源是经济社会发展的重要战略性资源,黄河流域水资源供需矛盾突出,水资源供需平衡将直接影响黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展。本文综合运用系统动力学和随机前沿分析方法,构建了黄河流域各省份水资源仿真模型,模拟预测了2021—2035年期间不同水资源利用方案和经济增长情景下的水资源供需缺口。结果表明:(1)预测期间黄河流域整体需水量小幅增加,水资源供需缺口呈现先增加后下降的趋势;(2)除青海和四川外,黄河流域其他省份均存在不同程度的水资源缺口;(3)水资源利用方案是影响水资源利用状况的关键因素,高度协调方案下黄河流域2035年水资源供需缺口比中度协调方案小34.93亿立方米至37.24亿立方米,比低度协调方案小73.71亿立方米至77.68亿立方米;(4)影响各省份水资源供需平衡的主导因素不同,整体来看水资源供需缺口对单位农业用水量的变动更加敏感。

Water resources are important strategic resources for economic and social development.However,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in the Yellow River Basin is prominent.Therefore,the balance of water supply and demand will directly affect the ecological conservation and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.In this study,we use the methods of system dynamics and stochastic frontier analysis to build simulation models of water resources in various provinces of the Yellow River Basin,and we simulated the gap between supply and demand of water resources under different water resources utilization schemes and economic growth scenarios from 2021 to 2035.The results show that:(1)During the forecast period,the overall water demand of the Yellow River Basin will increase slightly,and the gap between supply and demand will increase at first and then decrease.(2)Except for Qinghai and Sichuan,there exist water supply and demand gap with different degrees in other provinces of the Yellow River Basin.(3)Water resources utilization mode is a key factor affecting the utilization of water resources.Under the highly coordinated scheme,water supply and demand gap of the Yellow River Basin in 2035 is 34.93-37.24 billion cubic meters smaller than that of the moderate coordination scheme and 73.71-77.68 billion cubic meters smaller than that of the low coordination scheme.(4)The leading factor affecting the balance of water resources supply and demand in each province are different.On the whole,water resources supply and demand gap is more sensitive to the change of unit agricultural water consumption.