基于PLUS与InVEST模型的昆明市土地利用变化动态模拟与碳储量评估

Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Changes and Assessment of Carbon Storage in Kunming City Based on PLUS and InVEST Models

[目的]评估不同情景下的土地利用变化与碳储量变化,为优化生态服务与可持续性发展提供科学依据。[方法]基于PLUS模型与InVEST模型,模拟和预测不同情景下的土地利用变化与碳储量。[结果]①在自然发展与生态保护情景下,土地利用变化相似,耕地、草地、水域减少,建设用地急剧扩张,其中建设用地在自然发展情景下扩张更快,变化率达27.70%;在耕地保护情景下,土地利用变化与其他两种情景不同,这是由于林地面积的减少与建设用地的迅速扩张造成的;②昆明市2000,2010,2020年的碳储量分别为3.37×10^(8),3.34×10^(8),3.28×10^(8)t,呈现逐年下降的趋势。到2030年,耕地保护与生态保护相较于自然发展情景碳储量较高,说明采取保护措施,能有效控制碳储量的减少;③土地利用变化导致碳储量减少9.15×10^(6)t,土地利用变化与碳储量变化呈现高度一致性。[结论]落实耕地保护、生态保护政策,控制建设用地向耕地、林地的扩张,优化土地利用结构,有利于减缓区域碳储量损失。

[Objective]Changes in land use and carbon stocks under different scenarios were evaluated to provide a scientific basis for optimizing ecological services and sustainable development.[Methods]Changes in land use and carbon storage under different scenarios were simulated and extrapolated by comprehensively using the PLUS and InVEST models.[Results]①Similar land use changes were observed for both the natural evolution and ecological protection scenarios.Areas of farmland,grassland,and water decreased over time.There was a rapid expansion of construction land.The rate of construction land expansion was much higher for the natural evolution scenario(27.70%).Under the farmland protection scenario,changes in land use were different from those in the other two scenarios because of a decrease in woodland area and a rapid expansion in construction land area.②Carbon storage in Kunming City decreased over time,with 3.37×10^(8)t in 2000,3.34×10^(8)t in 2010,and 3.28×10^(8)t in 2020.By 2030.The carbon storage under the farmland protection and ecological protection scenarios will be relatively more than that under the natural evolution scenario.Adopting protective measures can effectively control the reduction in carbon storage;③The decrease in carbon storage caused by land use changes was 9.15×10^(6)t,and there was high consistency between land use changes and carbon storage changes.[Conclusion]Implementing a policy of farmland and ecological protection,limiting the expansion of construction land from,farmland and woodland,and optimizing land use structure will slow the loss of regional carbon storage.