货币政策对农产品价格波动的影响作用分析

Analysis of the impact of monetary policy on the price fluctuation of agricultural products

异常波动的农产品价格会影响农业生产的经营与收入,其中货币政策是农产品价格的重要影响因素。通过建立计量模型,并结合时间序列分析农产品价格波动的影响因素,根据数据予以检验表明,货币政策的变化对农产品价格会产生冲击效应,货币供应量增加会推高农产品价格,通货膨胀会使农产品价格发生剧烈波动。从长期角度分析,农产品价格波动明显受人民币汇率和财政政策的影响。从短期角度看,财政支出提高会推动农产品价格上涨,汇率冲击相对不显著。从相关数据检验可知,货币供应量速度提高会导致农产品价格剧烈波动,国际农产品价格及人民币汇率也会对相关农产品价格造成影响。

Abnormal fluctuation of agricultural products prices will affect the operation and income of agricultural production,of which monetary policy is an important factor.By establishing an econometric model and based on time series,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of the price fluctuation of agricultural products,and tests the data to show that the change of monetary policy has an impact effect on the price of agricultural products,the increase of money supply will push up the price of agricultural products,while inflation will cause drastic fluctuations in the price of agricultural products.In the long run,the price fluctuation of agricultural products is obviously affected by the RMB exchange rate and fiscal policy.In the short term,the increase of fiscal expenditure has driven up the price of agricultural products,and the impact of exchange rate is relatively insignificant.According to the relevant data,the increase in the speed of money supply will lead to sharp fluctuations in the price of agricultural products,and the international price of agricultural products and the exchange rate of RMB will also affect the price of relevant agricultural products.