巴西与其他金砖国家谷物贸易分析

Analysis of grain trade between Brazil and other BRICS countries

研究巴西与其他金砖国家谷物贸易情况、探析它们之间的合作潜能,对俄乌冲突引发全球谷物供需格局发生转变背景下稳定金砖国家的经济发展、推进国家间的合作具有深远意义。采用显示性比较优势指数(RCA)、贸易互补性指数(TC)、贸易引力模型等分析了2010—2020年巴西与其他金砖国家谷物比较优势、贸易互补性和合作潜力的变化情况。结果显示:巴西是金砖国家中与世界谷物贸易互补性联系最高的国家;在金砖国家中,巴西与南非的谷物贸易联系紧密且合作潜力最大。从具体品类看,巴西和俄罗斯、印度、中国间的玉米互补性指数强;俄罗斯大麦和小麦出口贸易具有较强的比较优势;中国和印度、俄罗斯大麦进口显示性比较优势强。根据研究结论,提出了促进金砖国家间贸易便利化、完善贸易合作机制的对策建议。

The study of grain trade between Brazil and other BRICS countries and the exploration of their cooperation potential are of far-reaching significance for stabilizing the economic development of BRICS countries and promoting the cooperation among them under the background of the transformation of the global grain supply and demand pattern caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.This paper analyzes the changes of comparative advantage,trade complementarity and cooperation potential between Brazil and other BRICS countries from 2010 to 2020 by using the index of revealed comparative advantage(RCA),the index of trade complementarity(TC)and the model of trade gravity.The results show that Brazil has the highest complementarity with the world grain trade among BRICS countries,among which Brazil and South Africa are closely linked in grain trade and have the greatest potential for cooperation.In terms of specific category,Brazil and Russia,India and China have strong complementary index of corn;Russian barley and wheat export trade has strong comparative advantages;China,India and Russia have strong comparative advantages in barley import.According to the research conclusion,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote trade facilitation and improve trade cooperation mechanism among BRICS countries.