塔里木河流域水资源高效利用与农业种植结构调整——基于改进的偏差值

Efficient Utilization of Water Resources and Adjustment of Agricultural Planting Structure in Tarim River Basin-−Based on the Modified Deviation Value

【目的/意义】水资源承载能力是影响农业种植结构的重要因素。塔里木河是中国最大的内陆河,其流域是中国重要的农业基地,优化农业种植结构有助于缓解流域内用水低效问题。【方法/过程】基于水资源利用结构偏差模型,测算地区与作物的水资源利用结构偏差值,从时空差异与作物差异角度分析塔里木河流域水资源利用效率,并以作物水资源利用结构偏差值作为农业种植结构调整的依据。【结果/结论】研究发现:2000—2020年,塔里木河流域水资源利用效率呈上升趋势,其中巴州与喀什地区水资源利用效率较高,阿克苏地区与克州水资源利用效率偏低;作物中用水效率较高的是水果与蔬菜,较低的为粮食与棉花。据此建议:根据“粮食基本自给”“稳定棉花生产”的要求,在全面推行节水灌溉的基础上稳定流域内棉花种植面积,整体调减粮食和油料的种植面积,调增水果、蔬菜、苜蓿、甜菜和薯类作物的种植面积,以此来提高塔里木河流域五地州的农业水资源利用效率。

【Objective/Meaning】The carrying capacity of water resources was an important factor affecting the agricultural planting structure.The Tarim River was the largest inland river in China,and its river basin was an important agricultural base in China.Optimizing the agricultural planting structure would help alleviate the problem of inefficient water use in the basin.【Methods/Procedures】Based on the structural deviation model of water resource utilization,the structural deviation value of water resource utilization of regions and crops were calculated,and the efficiency of water resource use in the Tarim River Basin was analyzed in terms of spatial-temporal differences and crop differences.Then,the structural deviation value of water resource utilization in crops was used as the basis for adjusting the agricultural planting structure.【Results/Conclusions】The study found that from 2000 to 2020,the water resources use efficiency in the Tarim River Basin shows an upward trend,among which the water resources use efficiency is higher in Bazhou and Kashgar,and lower in Aksu and Keshgar.Among the major crops grown in the Tarim River Basin,fruits and vegetables have higher water resource use efficiency,while grains and cotton have lower efficiency.Therefore,according to the requirements of“ensuring basic self-sufficiency of grain”and“stabilizing production of cotton”,it was suggested to maintain the cotton planting area,reduce the total area under grains and oilseeds,and increase the area under cultivation of fruits,vegetables,alfalfa,sugar beet and tuber crops on the basis of the full implementation of water-saving irrigation,so as to improve the water resources use efficiency of agriculture in the five prefectures of the Tarim River Basin.