网络视角下中国跨省人口流动格局跃迁及驱动机制:1991—2020年

China’s interprovincial population mobility patterns and driving mechanisms from the network perspective:1991-2020

长周期视角探究人口流动网络规律、演变特征及其影响机制,对于认识人口流动与区域均衡发展之间的逻辑关联、促进地区间经济和人口均衡具有积极意义。该研究基于1990年以来的全国人口普查和1%抽样调查数据,利用社会网络分析方法,对1991—2020年中国省际人口流动网络演变特征进行多期比较和态势研究,利用QAP分析方法识别人口流动网络演变的驱动机制。研究发现:①长周期视角下,人口流动具有“路径依赖”特征,省际人口流动网络“迁出地-迁入地”之间已经形成了较为稳定流动路径。网络格局已呈现出东部沿海地区高度集聚转变为东部沿海地区集聚与人口分散回流至中西部地区并存的趋势。②省际人口流动网络结构正在经历“由疏到密”“由单向流动为主转变为双向流动为主”的演变过程,逐渐形成空间对称的人口流动网络结构。③省际经济差距奠定了网络节点地位与权力的初始分布格局,并在很大程度上决定了未来人口流动网络的发展走势。短期内,省际人口流动网络的中心度等级不会产生根本改变。④人口流动网络的形成与演变归因于省际差距、时空社会网络以及地理距离等多种因素。人口流动网络在时空社会网络的作用下持续发展,省际差距形成的人口流动势能是人口流动网络演变发展的关键因素,但经济要素差距对流动人口的驱动作用在减弱,而生活舒适度和创新发展水平正在成为新时代影响人口流动网络的重要因素。

Exploring the patterns of population mobility networks,their evolutionary characteristics,and their influencing mechanisms from a long-cycle perspective is of positive significance for understanding the logical correlation between population mobility and balanced regional development and for promoting balanced economic and population development among regions.Based on China’s national census and 1%sample survey data since 1990,this study used the social network analysis method to conduct a multi-period comparison and trend study on the evolutionary characteristics of interprovincial population mobility networks in China from 1990 to 2020,and used the QAP analysis method to identify the influence mechanisms underlying the evolution of such networks.The study found that:①From the long-cycle perspective,the population flow had the characteristics of‘path dependence,’and a relatively stable flow path was formed between the‘emigration place’and the‘immigration place’of the interprovincial population mobility networks.The network pattern showed a trend of high concentration in the eastern coastal areas changing to the coexistence of concentration in the eastern coastal areas and the scattered population flowing back to the central and western regions.②The interprovincial population mobility network structure underwent a process of evolving‘from sparsity to density’and‘from one-way flow to two-way flow,’gradually forming a spatially symmetric population flow network structure.③The interprovincial economic gap helped establish the initial distribution pattern of network node status and power and,to a large extent,determined the development trend of future population mobility networks.In the short term,the centrality level of the interprovincial population mobility networks would not change fundamentally.④The formation and evolution of population mobility networks were attributed to various factors,such as interprovincial disparities,spatio-temporal social networks,and geographical distance.The population mobility networks continued to develop under the action of spatio-temporal social networks,and the population mobility potential formed by the interprovincial gap was a key factor in the evolution of the population mobility networks,but the driving role of the economic factor gap on the mobile population was weakening,while the level of comfort as well as the level of innovation and development would become important factors affecting the population mobility network in the new era.