ARIMA模型在水痘发病趋势预测中的应用

Application of ARIMA Model in Prediction of Varicella Incidence Trend

目的运用时间序列ARIMA乘积季节性模型预测水痘发病趋势,为嘉定区水痘发病防控预警提供参考依据。方法查阅《上海市统计年鉴》,获得2012—2022年上海市嘉定区常住总人口数;查询《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》中的嘉定区2012—2022年水痘病例信息。对嘉定区2022年水痘发病率进行预测并与实际数据进行分析,运用SPPS21.0时间序列模型专家建模器对2023年水痘月发病率进行外推预测。结果经参数和模型拟合优度检验,以及残差白噪声序列的检验最终确定专家建模器模型ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12模型拟合效果好,预测结果显示2023年嘉定区水痘发病率为56.68/10^(5)。结论专家建模器构建的ARIMA模型可以准确有效地预测嘉定区水痘发病趋势,能够对预警提供积极有效的依据,在实际中结合社会、自然等影响因素可针对性进行水痘防控工作,提高工作效率及防治效果。

Objective Using the time series ARIMA product seasonal model to predict the incidence trend of chicken pox,and provide reference for the early prevention and control of chicken pox in Jiading district.Methods The total permanent resident population of Jiading District in Shanghai from 2012 to 2022 was obtained by referring to Shanghai Statistical Yearbook.The information of chicken pox cases in Jiading District from 2012 to 2022 was collected by using the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System,and the incidence of chicken pox in 2022 was predicted and analyzed with the actual data.Use the SPPS 21.0 time series modelexpert modelers to extrapolate the monthly incidence of chicken pox in 2023.Results Using the goodness of fit test of parameters and models,as well as the test of residual white noise sequence,the expert modeling model ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12) had a good fitting effect.The predicted results showed that the incidence of chicken pox in Jiading District in 2023 was 56.68/10^(5).Conclusion The constructed ARIMA model by the expert modeler can accurately and effectively predict the incidence trend of chicken pox in Jiading District,which can provide positive and effective basis for early warning.In practice,combining social,natural and other influencing factors,the prevention and control of chicken pox can be targeted to improve work efficiency and prevention effect.