基于DPSIR模型的中原城市群生态安全评价研究

The Study on Ecological Security Evaluation of Central Plains Urban Agglomeration Based on DPSIR Mode

中原城市群作为黄河流域的重要流经区域,在兼顾经济发展与生态保护上面临着考验,生态安全评价是生态安全领域的基础性研究,进行中原城市群的生态安全评价对该区域生态环境保护至关重要。论文基于DPSIR模型构建中原城市群生态安全评价指标体系,借助全局熵值法和Lotka-Volterra模型对2010—2019年生态安全进行动态评价。结果表明:(1)从时间尺度上看,中原城市群30个地市的生态安全整体有向好的趋势;(2)在空间序列上,中原城市群则呈现出由中部差四周好到四周好中部差的变化格局,但地区之间呈现明显差异;(3)整体看,2010—2019年间处于风险区、高风险区和危险区的地区比例超过了稳定健康区、稳定亚健康区和非稳定风险区的比例,中原城市群的生态安全状况未来仍需持续重视。

As an important region flowing through the Yellow River Basin,the Central Plains urban agglomeration is faced with a challenge in balancing economic development and ecological protection.Ecological security assessment is a basic research in the field of ecological security,and ecological security assessment of the Central Plains urban agglomeration is very important for the ecological environment protection of the region.Based on DPSIR model,this paper establishes the ecological security evaluation index system of Central Plains urban agglomeration,and uses global entropy method 29and Lotka-Volterra model to conduct dynamic evaluation of ecological security from 2010 to 2019.The results show that:(1)From the time series,the ecological security of 30 cities in the Central Plains urban agglomeration has a good trend;(2)In terms of spatial sequence,there is a change pattern from the middle area of the poor to the middle area of the good,but there are obvious differences between regions.(3)On the whole,from 2010 to 2019,the proportion of areas in risk areas,high risk areas and danger areas exceeded the proportion of stable healthy areas,stable sub-health areas and unstable risk areas.The ecological security situation of the Central Plains urban agglomeration still needs to be paid continuous attention in the future.