安徽省耕地多功能转型及对耕地“非粮化”的变化响应研究

Multifunctional Transformation of Cultivated Land in Anhui Province and Its Response to Non-grain Cultivated Land

在复杂的气候变化和世界局势下,防止耕地“非粮化”、挖掘耕地多功能、守住粮食安全底线具有重要意义。本文以安徽省16个地级市为研究对象,从粮食安全保障、国民经济贡献、社会安定维护、生态安全承载4个维度构建耕地多功能评价指标体系,刻画2000—2020年耕地多功能的时空演变特征与规律,并利用敏感度模型分析耕地多功能对耕地“非粮化”的敏感程度。研究表明:(1)2000—2020年间耕地各项子功能值在整体上呈现剧烈—平缓—剧烈变化趋势,粮食安全保障功能和国民经济贡献功能上升,而社会安定维护功能和生态安全承载功能下降。(2)安徽省“非粮化”程度呈下降趋势,在地域差异上表现为皖南地区高于皖北地区。(3)耕地粮食安全保障功能、社会安定维护功能、生态承载功能对耕地“非粮化”程度变化敏感性增加,而经济贡献功能的敏感性下降。粮食安全保障功能值高的地区对“非粮化”不敏感,社会安定维护功能的敏感区域与“非粮化”程度高的区域有一定程度的重合。最后,提出强化耕地多功能管理,落实“藏粮于地、藏粮于技”战略,科学设定“非粮化”标准等建议。

In the face of complex climate change and the world situation,it is of great significance to prevent arable land from being turned into non-grain land,explore multi-functional cultivated land and maintain the bottom line of food security.Based on 16 cities in Anhui province as the research object,this paper constructs a multi-functional evaluation index system of cultivated land from four dimensions:food security guarantee,national economic contribution,social stability maintenance,and ecological security bearing,depicts the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and laws of cultivated land multi-function in 2000—2020,and analyzes the sensitivity of cultivated land multi-function to cultivated land non-grain use by using sensitivity model.The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the overall change of each sub-function value of cultivated land shows a sharp—gentle—sharp trend.The functions of food security guarantee and national economic contribution increased,while the functions of maintaining social stability and carrying ecological security decreased.(2)The degree of non-grain conversion in Anhui Province showed a downward trend,and the regional difference showed that the southern Anhui was higher than the northern Anhui.(3)The function of ensuring food security,maintaining social stability and carrying ecological capacity of cultivated land increased in sensitivity to the change of non-grain degree of cultivated land,while the function of economic contribution decreased in sensitivity.The regions with high value of food security guarantee function are not sensitive to non-grain transformation,and the sensitive regions of social stability maintenance function coincide with the regions with high degree of non-grain transformation to a certain extent.Finally,it is proposed to strengthen the multifunctional management of cultivated land,implement the strategies of“storing grain in land”and“storing grain in technology”,and set scientific“non-food”standards.