“一带一路”背景下资源型联合投资策略选择研究

Research on the Strategy Choice of Resource-based Joint Investment under the Background of‘Belt and Road’

“一带一路”沿线国家资源分布不均衡且相互依存度高,资源型海外投资成为沿线国家保证经济安全的重要路径。文章通过构建鞍点概率模型和算例仿真,探究不同参数条件下中国国有企业和民营企业联合投资概率的最优调节方法。研究表明:联合投资的合作收益、合作成本、违约金等市场机制因素对联合投资概率有一定影响但不能达到预期;搭配政府打造合作平台、实施财税激励等宏观调节措施能有效地提升企业联合投资概率;进一步考虑适度调节合作方的初始投资比例可以有效促进联合投资主体向积极合作的方向演化,以上因素复合牵引对联合投资概率的影响更为显著。研究丰富了企业海外投资影响因素的研究,对企业投资策略选择以及政府宏观政策实施具有现实意义。

The resources of countries along the‘Belt and Road’are unevenly distributed and highly interdependent,and resource-based overseas investment has become an important way for them to ensure economic security.This paper explores the optimal adjustment method of joint investment probability of Chinese state-owned enterprises and private enterprises under diff erent parameter conditions by constructing saddle point probability model and example simulation.The research shows that the market mechanism factors such as cooperation income,cooperation cost and liquidated damages of joint investment have a certain impact on the probability of joint investment but cannot meet the expectations;the macrocontrol measures such as government’s building a cooperation platform,the implementation of fi scal and tax incentives can eff ectively enhance the probability of joint investment;further consideration of moderate adjustment of the partners’initial investment ratio can eff ectively promote the evolution of the joint investment subject to the direction of active cooperation,and the combined traction of the above factors has a more signifi cant impact on the probability of joint investment.The research enriches the research on the infl uencing factors of enterprises’overseas investment and has practical signifi cance for enterprises’investment strategy choice and government’s macro policy implementation.