基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS的兰州百合生态适宜性区划研究

Study on Ecology Suitability Regionalization of Lilium davidii var.willmottiae Based on MaxEnt Model and ArcGIS

目的对兰州百合的生态适宜性进行评价,为扩大兰州百合在全国范围内种植面积及推广种植提供前期指导。方法通过网络资料和实地采集,收集兰州百合地理位置信息125份,综合55个生态因子,应用地理信息系统(ArcGIS)和最大熵模型分析兰州百合的生态适宜性分布。结果影响兰州百合潜在分布的主要生态因子为10月份降水量(42.6%)、海拔(20.6%)、温暖指数(13.4%)、温度季节性变化标准差(6.4%)和12月份降水量(4.9%),累积贡献率达87.9%。结合ArcGIS软件分析认为,甘肃、宁夏、陕西、山西、四川、云南、河南、重庆及湖北等省份是兰州百合的普遍适宜生长区。其中高适宜区主要位于甘肃南部、东南部,宁夏西南部,陕西西南部部分地区,面积约41.5×10^(4) km^(2);中适宜区主要位于宁夏南部、四川东北部、云南西北部、西藏南部、陕西南部及北部部分地区,面积约128.4×10^(4) km^(2);低适宜区主要有山西南部、河南西北部、重庆大部、湖北西北部、云南大部,面积约213.5×10^(4) km^(2)。结论建立的模型分析结果与实际考察相符,可为兰州百合的种植区域规划提供参考。

Objective To evaluate the ecological suitability of Lilium davidii var.willmottiae;To provide early guidance for expanding the planting areas and promoting the planting of Lilium davidii var.willmottiae nationwide.Methods Through the network data and field collection,125 pieces of geographical location information about Lilium davidii var.willmottiae was collected,and 55 ecological factors were integrated.ArcGIS and MaxEnt model were used to analyze the ecological suitability distribution of Lilium davidii var.willmottiae.Results The main ecological factors affecting the potential geographical distribution of Lilium davidii var.willmottiae were precipitation in October(42.6%),altitude(20.6%),warmth index(13.4%),standard deviation of seasonal temperature variation(6.4%)and precipitation in December(4.9%),and the cumulative contribution rate reached 87.9%.According to the analysis of ArcGIS software,Gansu,Ningxia,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Sichuan,Yunnan,Henan,Chongqing and Hubei provinces were generally suitable growing areas for Lilium davidii var.willmottiae.Among them,the high-suitable areas were mainly located in the south and southeast of Gansu,southwest Ningxia and part of southwest Shaanxi,with an area of about 415000 km^(2).The middle-suitable areas were mainly located in southern Ningxia,northeastern Sichuan,northwestern Yunnan,southern Tibet and part of southern and northern Shaanxi,with an area of about 1.284 million km^(2).The lowsuitable areas mainly included southern Shanxi,northwestern Henan,most of Chongqing,northwest Hubei and most of Yunnan,with an area of about 2.135 million km^(2).Conclusion The results of the model analysis are consistent with the actual investigation,which can provide reference for the planting area planning of Lilium davidii var.willmottiae.