中美贸易摩擦下关税壁垒对我国农产品部门的影响研究

The Impact of Tariff Barriers on China’s Agricultural Product Sector in the Context of China⁃US Trade Frictions

中美贸易战对两国经济以及世界经贸格局都产生了深远的影响,对我国农产品部门也产生了巨大的冲击。在这一背景下,针对未来可能的贸易风险进行相关研究。将定性和定量分析相结合,对中美农产品贸易的现状进行评估,并借助GTAP模型,对中美贸易摩擦进行情景模拟,主要研究关税壁垒对我国主要农产品部门生产和贸易行为产生的影响。对模拟结果分析后发现,征收关税对两国宏观经济产生负面影响,破坏了两国贸易流量;就农产品部门来说,对不同部门会造成不同的贸易效应,并影响部门产出。

China-US trade war exerted a profound influence on their economies and even world economic and trade structure.It also had a huge impact on China’s agricultural product sector.In this context,this paper conducts relevant research on potential future trade risks.Combining qualitative and quantitative analysis,this paper evaluates the current situation of China-US agricultural trade,and simulate China-US friction scenarios with the help of GTAP model.It focuses on the impact of tariff barriers on the production and trade behavior of China’s major agricultural sector.According to the simulation results,it is found that tariffs have a negative impact on the macroeconomics of both countries and disrupt trade flows between them;in terms of agricultural product sector,tariffs will have different trade effects on different sectors,and affect sectors’production.Therefore,this paper summarizes the above findings and makes suggestions on policies.