地震动强度参数相关性对地震滑坡危险性影响分析

Analysis of the influence of the correlation of ground motion parameters on earthquake-induced landslide hazard

本文基于全概率地震滑坡危险性分析方法,利用蒙特卡罗模拟研究在不同临界屈服加速度a c、永久位移模型、场地类别和断层距情况下,地震动强度参数相关性对地震滑坡危险性结果的影响规律。主要结果表明:在进行滑坡危险性分析时,不考虑多地震动强度参数相关性会造成预测位移值偏小,滑坡风险被低估。因此,考虑地震动强度参数相关性对滑坡危险性评价很有必要,这能使预测结果反映地震动参数样本作为输入时的实际相关性特征,为合理进行滑坡防护提供理论依据和参考。

Based on the full probability seismic landslide hazard analysis method utilizing Monte-Carlo simulation,this study discusses the impacts of the correlation among ground motion intensity parameters on the earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment under different critical yield accelerations(a c),permanent displacement models,site types,and fault distances.The main conclusions show that:in the earthquake-induced landslide hazard analysis,ignoring the correlation of multiple ground motion intensity parameters will cause the predicted displacement value to be unconservative and the landslide hazard to be underestimated.Accordingly,it is vital to consider the correlation of ground motion intensity parameters for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment,which makes the prediction results reflect the actual correlation characteristics of ground motion parameter samples as input,and provides a theoretical basis and reference for reasonable landslide protection.