考虑震害因子耦合作用的砌体建筑群破坏概率模型研究

Research on damage probability model for masonry building groups considering the coupling effect of seismic factors

砌体建筑群在地震中往往破坏严重损失巨大,合理评估地震作用对不同种类砌体结构造成破坏的风险变得至关重要。传统基于后验概率的地震危险性分析方法忽略了砌体建筑个体差异性的影响,未深入考虑多种震害因子的耦合作用。本文以华南地区砌体建筑群为例,开发了一种集成概率方法来对城市砌体结构的破坏风险进行建模,考虑建筑年代、层数、使用用途和墙厚四类震害因子的耦合影响,采用(Kolmogorov-Smirnov)K-S检验,在设定地震动参数下选取Gaussian分布、Log-Normal分布、Gumbel分布和Beta分布四种概率分布对该地区砌体建筑物的破坏状态概率分布参数进行拟合。通过均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error)RMSE进行拟合优度评价,最终建立基于Gaussian分布和Log-Normal分布的砌体建筑物破坏联合概率模型。最后,以华南地区三个城市典型砌体建筑物为例进行实例对比验证,将基于本文建立的建筑破坏概率模型推算出的砌体建筑群震害矩阵与基于单体结构分析得到的震害矩阵进行对比,与理论值最大偏差为0.0333。研究表明:本文构建的集成概率方法能够获得更加合理的城市砌体建筑物震害矩阵,提供了考虑结构固有不确定性和随机不确定性的有效途径,有助于推动城市建筑韧性评价和设计理论的发展。

Masonry buildings often cause considerable losses in earthquakes,it is very important to reasonably assess the risk of seismic damage to different types of masonry structures.The traditional method of seismic hazard analysis based on posterior probability ignores the influence of individual difference of masonry buildings and does not consider the coupling effect of various seismic damage factors.Taking masonry buildings in South China as an example,this paper developed an integrated probability method to model the damage risk of urban masonry structures,considering the coupling effects of four earthquake damage factors:building structure,age,number of floors and use.K-S test was used to fit the probability distribution parameters of failure state of masonry buildings in this area by selecting Gaussian distribution,log-Normal distribution,Gumbel distribution and Beta distribution under the setting of ground motion parameters.The root means square error RMSE was chosen to evaluate the goodness-of-fit.Finally,a joint probability model of masonry building damage was established based on Gaussian and Log-Normal distributions.Taking typical masonry buildings in three cities in South China for example comparison and verification,the earthquake damage matrix of masonry buildings calculated based on the building failure probability model established in this paper is compared with the earthquake damage matrix based on the analysis of single structure,and the maximum deviation from the actual value is 0.0333.The results show that the integrated probability method can obtain a more reasonable and universal earthquake damage matrix of urban masonry buildings,which provides an effective way to consider the inherent and random uncertainties of structures,and contributes to the development of urban building resilience evaluation and design theory.