碳中和导向下贵州省森林资源生态价值评估及生态补偿研究

Analysis on the system dynamics model of ecological value assessment and ecological compensation of forest resources under the guidance of carbon neutralization in Guizhou

随着经济的快速发展和人们环保意识的增强,森林资源在生产和生活中的重要性日趋凸显。碳中和导向下森林生态价值评估,以及生态补偿机制的建立健全是当今学术界关注的焦点问题之一。本文以生态系统服务价值评估理论及系统动力学理论为指导,对2005—2018年贵州省森林生态系统的生态价值和生态损耗进行评估,运用SD模型分析森林的生态价值、生态损耗以及生态补偿之间的相互影响关系,利用Vensim仿真软件对森林的生态价值、生态损耗及生态补偿进行实证分析。研究结果表明:2005—2018年贵州省森林的生态价值表现出不断上升的变化趋势,上升幅度为87.75%。其中森林资源涵养水源的价值增幅最大,研究区森林涵养水源的功能大幅度提高,大大增强了淡水供给、水文调节、水质净化的能力,减少了水蚀,有效地促进了生态环境保护。2005—2018年研究区森林生态价值顺序由高到低为:固碳释氧价值>保育土壤价值平均值>涵养水源价值,表明随着研究区退化喀斯特植被的恢复,森林对碳中和的贡献度最高。森林生态损耗总体上表现出波动下降的变化趋势,森林的生态补偿估算值呈现出不断上升的变化趋势,研究结果与实际相符,揭示贵州省在喀斯特山区实施的各项森林保护措施及生态建设取得了显著的成效。

With the rapid economic development and the enhancement of environmental protection,the importance of forest resources in production and life has become increasingly prominent.The evaluation of forest ecological value and the establishment and improvement of ecological compensation mechanism are one of the focus issues in current academic circles under the guidance of carbon neutralization.Guided by the ecosystem service value evaluation theory and system dynamics theory,this paper evaluates the ecological value and ecological loss of the forest ecosystem in Guizhou province from 2005 to 2018,uses SD model to analyze the mutual influence between forest ecological value,ecological loss and ecological compensation,and uses Vensim simulation software to make an empirical analysis on the ecological value,ecological loss and ecological compensation of the forest.The results show that the ecological value of forests in Guizhou province from 2005 to 2018 showed an increasing trend,with an increase of 87.75%.Among them,the value of water conservation by forest resources increased the most,revealing that the function of water conservation by forests in the study area was greatly improved,which greatly enhanced the capacity of freshwater supply,hydrological regulation,and water quality purification,reduced water erosion,and effectively promoted ecological environmental protection.From 2005 to 2018,the order of forest ecological value in the study area was as follows:carbon fixation and oxygen release value>average soil conservation value>water conservation value,which indicated that with the restoration of degraded Karst vegetation in the study area,forest made the highest contribution to carbon neutrality.The forest ecological loss generally showed a trend of downward fluctuations,and the estimated value of forest ecological compensation showed a rising trend,which was in line with the current reality,revealing that the various forest protection measures and ecological construction implemented by Guizhou province in the karst mountain area had achieved remarkable results.