RCEP降低跨境货物通关时间的影响

The Impact of RCEP on Reducing the Time of Cross-border Cargo Release

随着关税水平的降幅空间式微,贸易便利化将在降低贸易成本、优化营商环境、推动各成员方经济发展方面发挥更重要的作用。根据RCEP协定,将货物通关时间作为衡量贸易便利化水平的指标,基于GTAP模型对跨境货物通关时间成本进行量化研究,通过调整模型的进口需求使其能够反映代理商自国外进口商品或购买国内商品的选择,模拟RCEP成员国降低货物通关时间的相关影响。研究结果表明:降低跨境货物通关时间将使得中国农产品出口量增长16.33%,而消减关税和降低非关税贸易壁垒的方式分别只能带来1.41%和1.46%的增长量;除农业部门之外,降低跨境货物通关时间还将促进中国纺织服装等特色优势产业的出口;对车辆及运输设备的进口来说,降低跨境货物通关时间将使得进口量大幅增长,比仅降低关税高出七倍;跨境货物通关时间的降低对RCEP缔约方的影响呈差异化特征。总之,降低跨境货物通关时间对提高RECP缔约方福利水平、扩大进出口、促进劳动力就业、提高资本净回报率等方面具有显著的拉动作用,各方应以降低跨境货物通关时间为着力点,推进区域经济一体化。

As the reduction space of tariff level diminishes,trade facilitation plays a more important role in reducing trade cost,optimizing business environment and promoting economic development of member countries.In the RCEP agreement,cargo release time is an important indicator of trade facilitation.Based on the GTAP model,the time cost of cross-border goods customs release is quantified.By adjusting the import demand of the model,it can reflect the choice of agents to import goods from abroad or buy domestic goods,and simulate the impact of RCEP on reducing the time of goods customs release.The results show that tariff reduction will increase the export volume of China's agricultural products sector by 1.407%,the export volume will increase by 1.457%under the scenario of reducing non-tariff trade barriers,and the export volume of China's agricultural products sector will increase by 16.332%under the scenario of reducing cross-border customs release time.At the same time,it will also promote the export of China's textile and garment industries with special advantages.In terms of China's imports of vehicles and transportation equipment,reducing customs release time for cross-border goods will increase imports by seven times compared to reducing tariffs alone.Reducing the release time of cross-border goods has a significant driving effect on improving China's welfare level,expanding import and export,promoting labor employment and increasing net return on capital.Reducing the time for cross-border cargo release will have a differentiated impact on other RCEP parties.RECP parties should promote regional economic integration by reducing the time for cross-border cargo release as a starting point.