日本的“印太战略”:形成、动因及收益分析

Japan′s"Indo-Pacific Strategy":Its Formation,Motivation and Benefit Analysis

日本是最早提出“印太”概念并推行“自由开放的印太”战略的国家。近年来,日本从多个领域不断推动“印太战略”朝着更加机制化与成熟化的方向发展。日本出台“印太战略”的动机主要由风险规避与利益驱动两大因素决定,其所获成效可以划分为正向收益、负向收益以及不确定收益。正向收益为获得美国的安全保障及盟友的支持、深化经济合作并构建合作机制、获得参与印太事务的契机。负向收益为对中日关系的发展产生负面影响,并难以把控战略自主性。不确定收益包括同盟关系的不稳定性、印太国家意愿、美日国内因素的影响以及域外大国的干预。受众多因素影响,日本“印太战略”难以完全达成预期收益。梳理日本的“印太战略”,有助于解释中美竞争背景下日本政策选择的机理及实施成效,从而为中国提供决策参考。

Japan is the first country to propose the concept of"Indo-Pacific"and pursue a"Free and Open Indo-Pacific"strategy.Recently,Japan has been promoting the"Indo-Pacific strategy"so that it becomes more institutionalized and mature.The motives of Japan′s"Free and Open Indo-Pacific"strategy is mainly driven by avoiding risks and gaining benefits.The benefits can be divided into positive returns,negative returns and uncertain returns.The positive returns for Japan are America′s security and the support of Allies,expanding economic cooperation and building cooperation mechanism,and participating in Indo-Pacific affairs.The negative returns are negative impact on the development of Sino-Japanese relations,and loss of strategic autonomy.The uncertain benefits include alliance instability,Indo-Pacific countries′will,the US and Japan′s domestic factors,and intervention of outside powers.Affected by many factors,Japan′s Indo-Pacific strategy cannot completely achieve its expected returns.Analysis of Japan′s Indo-Pacific strategy helps to explain the mechanism of Japan′s policy making and its implementation effect so as to provide decision-making reference for China against the background of Sino-US competition.