2001—2017年艾比湖流域积雪时空变化及其驱动因子分析

Temporal and spatial changes of snow cover in the Ebinur Lake basin from 2001 to 2017 and analysis of its driving factors

基于2001—2017年艾比湖流域MODIS遥感数据、气象数据和降水数据,分析艾比湖流域2001—2017年积雪时空分布特征、变化趋势及其驱动因子。结果表明:(1)2001—2017年艾比湖流域积雪变化呈增加趋势。(2)2001—2017年艾比湖流域积雪与地表温度线性相关呈负相关性,积雪与降水量线性相关呈正相关性。(3)在地表温度固定时,积雪与降水的偏相关系数分别介于–0.83—0.90之间,所占正相关面积为67.05%;在降水固定时,积雪与地表温度的偏相关系数分别介于–0.97—0.79之间,所占负相关面积为95.67%。(4)艾比湖流域积雪变化受气候因子影响的区域占55.32%,主要分布在艾比湖流域的东南两侧与西北区域,其中降水主驱动区域占31.80%,地表温度主驱动区域占1.19%,地表温度和降水共同强驱动区域占0.49%,地表温度、降水共同弱驱动区域占21.84%。

Based on the MODIS remote sensing data meteorological data,and precipitation data of the Ebinur Lake Basin from 2001 to 2017,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics,changing trends and driving factors of snow cover in the Ebinur Lake Basin from 2001 to 2017 were analyzed.The results are as follows.(1)Variations in snow cover in Ebinur Lake Basin showed an increasing trend from 2001 to 2017.(2)A negative linear correlation existed between snow cover and surface temperature,whereas a positive linear correlation existed between snow cover and precipitation in Ebinur Lake Basin during 2001 and 2017.(3)When the surface temperature was stable,the partial correlation coefficients between snow and precipitation were within–0.83-0.90,accounting for 67.05%of the positive correlation area.When precipitation was stable,the partial correlation coefficients between snow cover and surface temperature were within–0.97-0.79,accounting for 95.67%of the negative correlation area.(4)The area of snow cover change affected by climate factors in the Ebinur Lake Basin accounted for 55.32%of the total area,which was mainly distributed in the southeastern and northwestern areas in the Ebinur Lake Basin.Among them,the area as precipitation was the main driving factor accounting for 31.80%,while the area as surface temperature was the main driving factor accounting for 1.19%,the areas as surface temperature and precipitation were the strong driving factors accounting for 0.49%,and the areas as surface temperature and precipitation were the week driving factors accounting for 21.84%of the total area.