中国超大城市经济社会韧性水平特征分布与动态演进

Characteristics Distribution and Dynamic Evolution of Economic and Social Resilience Level of Chinese Megacities

城市经济社会韧性在评价城市的经济系统与社会系统承受外部冲击的能力和可持续发展水平中起到极其重要的作用。为了测度中国超大城市经济社会韧性水平,本文基于2010—2020年相关指标的面板数据,建立评价城市经济社会韧性的指标体系,并通过主成分分析、聚类分析和Kernel密度估计研究中国超大城市经济社会韧性水平特征及动态演进。结果表明:中国超大城市呈现出经济社会韧性协调发展和发展不平衡的多元化特征分布;中国超大城市经济社会韧性水平整体上逐年提升,但是在经济方面呈现出发展不均衡的状态,城市之间的差异较大;在社会方面发展水平较为集中,且发展势头良好。

Urban economic and social resilience plays an extremely important role in evaluating the ability of a city’s economic system and social system to withstand external shocks and the level of sustainable development.In order to measure the level of economic and social resilience of Chinese megacities,this paper establishes an index system for evaluating urban economic and social resilience based on the panel data of relevant indicators from 2010 to 2020,and studies the level characteristics and dynamic evolution of economic and social resilience of Chinese megacities through principal component analysis,cluster analysis and kernel density estimation.The results show that:China’s megacities show a diversifi ed distribution of coordinated development and unbalanced development of economic and social resilience;China’s megacities’economic and social resilience level has been improving year by year as a whole,but the economy aspect has shown a state of unbalanced development.The difference is relatively large between cities;the level of development in the social aspect is relatively concentrated,and the development momentum is good.