CPTPP的扩容条款与路径及中国加入面临的障碍

Expansion Clauses and Paths of CPTPP and Obstacles of China’s Accession

CPTPP的扩容条款由“加入”和“加入程序”构成。CPTPP扩容前景良好,但路径相对分散。尽管从加入条款和扩容第一步看,CPTPP淡化了扩容的成员属性与目标,但未来还是更有可能以APEC成员为基础,并不断呈现有利于FTAAP的亚太扩容图景。作为CPTPP得以签署与生效的最大推动者,日本的FTA战略随着地缘政治经济格局的加速重构而日益凸显进取态势,其寻求尽可能利用CPTPP的扩容来提升自身对区域经济合作的主导权。CPTPP对扩容有协商一致的要求,使中国加入CPTPP非高标准规则层面的障碍进一步增加。中国既需要利用CPTPP所鼓励的非正式接触,就其成员感兴趣的问题或关注点进行一对一磋商,又需要加强与CPTPP创始成员及有意加入的经济体之间的双边FTA构建与升级,还要推进FTAAP另一可能路径RCEP的扩容与升级,尽可能减少地缘政治因素尤其是地缘经济分裂风险的干扰。

CPTPP expansion clauses consist of“accession”and“accession process.”The expansion process of CPTPP shows great promise,but its paths are relative dispersion.Although from the accession clauses and the first step of expansion,CPTPP plays down the member attribute and purpose of expansion,the future expansion is more likely to be based on the APEC members and presents the picture that is conducive to the establishment of FTAAP.As the key driver of the signing and entry into force of CPTPP,Japan’s FTA strategy is more enterprising with the accelerated reconstruction of geopolitical and economic pattern,and seeking to promote the regional economic cooperation dominance through CPTPP expansion whenever possible.Stressing the importance of the consensus rule in the CPTPP accession,which further strengthens the barriers at non-high standard rules level to China’s accession to CPTPP.China not only should engage informally with all CPTPP signatories and have consultations with each party with a view to addressing their questions or concerns on interested area that be encouraged by CPTPP,but also should build and upgrade bilateral FTA with CPTPP signatories and aspirant economies,and should promote RCEP expansion and upgrade that as another possible path to FTAAP to minimize the interference of geopolitical factors especially the risk of geo-economic fragmentation.