机器人进口与生产率进步——基于进口产品类型的动态结构式估计

Robot Imports and Productivity Improvement--Dynamic Structural Estimation Based on Types of Imported Product

明确区分企业在国际上采购不同类型产品对生产率增长的异质性作用,不仅有助于政府制定贸易发展的政策,同时也有助于国内国际双循环全新发展格局的形成。本文通过构建涵盖进口决策、研发投入以及企业生产率的动态结构模型,分别考察了机器人、其他资本品和中间品进口对企业生产率增长的影响,并在反事实分析中对资本品和中间品关税在贸易自由化中的作用进行量化。本文发现其他资本品进口具有最强的生产率效应,其次为中间品,机器人进口的生产率效应最小。一方面,三类进口均会对生产率产生即时影响,但只有其他资本品进口和中间品进口具有动态生产率效应。另一方面,其他资本品和中间品进口具有显著的研发诱导效应,但在机器人进口方面则没有明确的证据表明该效应的存在。此外,资本品关税的自由化相比于中间品关税具有更好的效果,这为中国关税结构的调整提供了全新的思路。

Distinguishing the heterogeneous effects of different types of international procurement on productivity growth,is helpful not only for governments to formulate trade policies but also to accelerate the establishment of"dual circulation"development pattern.This paper develops a dynamic structural model including import decisions,R&D investment,and enterprise productivity to investigate the effects of robot,other capital,and intermediate imports on firms productivity growth.We also quantify the importance of capital and intermediate tariff liberalization in counterfactual analysis.Our findings show that other capital imports have the largest productivity effect,while robot imports have the smallest.While all types of imports have an immediate effect on productivity,only other capital and intermediate imports have dynamic productivity effects.Additionally,we identify a significant R&D-inducing effect from capital and intermediate imports,but with no clear evidence from robot imports.Furthermore,the effect of capital tariff liberalization is better than that of intermediate tariffs,which could improve China's tariff structure.