数字经济驱动中国农业现代化的机制与效应

Digital Economy Drives Agricultural Modernization in China:Mechanism and Effects

基于中国30个省(区、市)2011—2020年面板数据,在理论分析的基础上分别采用双向固定效应模型、面板门槛模型和空间杜宾模型等实证检验了数字经济对中国农业现代化的影响机制与效应。结果表明:数字经济能够显著驱动中国农业现代化,该结论在多种稳健性检验条件下依然成立;面板门槛效应分析显示,数字经济对农业现代化的驱动效应存在以数字经济发展水平、农村人力资本水平和农村非农就业为门槛变量的递增型非线性特征;空间溢出效应分析表明,数字经济对农业现代化的影响存在显著的空间溢出效应,数字经济有利于形成区域间农业现代化协同推进的发展格局;区域异质性分析发现,数字经济能够驱动东部地区农业现代化的发展,但对中西部地区农业现代化的赋能作用尚不明显;驱动路径分析显示,数字经济对农业三个子体系现代化的驱动效应从大到小依次为产业体系现代化、经营体系现代化、生产体系现代化。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(or autonomous regions and cities)in China mainland from 2011 to 2020,this paper empirically studies the impact mechanism and effect of digital economy on regional agricultural modernization from multiple dimensions using two-way fixed effect model,panel threshold model and spatial Durbin model on the basis of theoretical analysis.The results show that the digital economy can significantly drive the modernization of regional agriculture in China,and this conclusion is still valid under various robustness test conditions.The panel threshold effect analysis shows that the driving effect has an increasing non-linear characteristic with its own development level,rural human capital level,and the proportion of rural non-agricultural employment as threshold variables.Analysis shows that there is a significant spatial spillover effect,and the digital economy is conducive to the formation of a coordinated development pattern of agricultural modernization among regions.Regional heterogeneity analysis shows that digital economy can drive the development of agricultural modernization in the eastern regions,but its enabling effect in the central and western regions is not obvious.Driving path analysis shows that the driving effect on the three subsystems of agriculture is in a descending order,ranking as follows:the modernization of the agricultural industrial system,the modernization of the agricultural management system,and the modernization of the agricultural production system.