数字时代农民工的城乡迁移

Urban-Rural Migration in the Digital Era

在“乡村振兴战略”背景下,农民工返乡对乡村人才振兴有着重大意义。将阿里巴巴电子商务发展指数与2015年和2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据相结合,基于Probit模型,系统考察电子商务发展对农民工返乡意愿的影响。研究发现:①电子商务发展对农民工返乡意愿具有显著正向影响,且居住地电子商务发展对户籍地电子商务发展与农民工返乡意愿之间存在显著的调节作用;②机制分析表明电子商务发展主要通过收入促进效应、城乡收入差距缩小效应和社会网络关系增强效应三种渠道影响农民工的返乡意愿;③异质性分析表明,电子商务发展对跨省流动、老一代农民工、经济发展水平较低及中西部地区农民工返乡意愿的提升作用更大。

In the context of″rural revitalization strategy″,migrant workers return to hometown is of great significance to the revitalization of rural talents.Based on a probit model,this paper combines the Alibaba e-commerce development index with data from the 2015 and 2017 National Mobility Monitoring Survey,systematically examines the impact of e-commerce development on migrant workers′home-returning willingness.The study finds that:First,e-commerce development has a significant positive impact on migrant workers′home-returning willingness,and there is a significant moderating effect between e-commerce development in the place of residence and the home-returning willingness.Second,the mechanism analysis shows that effects of e-commerce development in the domicile area on are mainly through three channels:the income promotion effect,the urban-rural income gap reduction effect and the social network enhancement effect;Third,heterogeneity analysis shows that e-commerce development has a greater effect on cross-provincial mobility,older generation of migrant workers,lower level of economic development and the home-returning willingness of migrant workers in central and western regions.