适应气候风险的韧性城市治理双体系建设——雄安新区气候风险适应模式

Constructing a‘dual system’of resilient urban governance adapting to climate risks:building a climate risk adaptation model in the Xiong’an New Area

雄安新区所在白洋淀地区历史上有着多次重大暴雨洪涝记载,未来暴雨洪涝、高温热浪、重度雾霾等极端气候事件增长趋势导致潜在气候风险加剧,应对气候风险的韧性城市建设成为确保新区千年大计的基本任务。建立应对极端气候风险的智能技术应灾和智慧社会应灾“双体系”,是韧性城市治理的基本途径。该研究以雄安新区韧性城市建设为例,在评估和分析未来极端气候风险对雄安的潜在影响基础上,从复杂系统视角把城市韧性分解为结构韧性、过程韧性和系统韧性三个层次:(1)智能应灾技术体系的结构性技术体系需要重视城市空间韧性规划,筑牢基于流域的自然疏浚系统;确保城市生命线的应对洪涝能力;把防灾能力现代化作为地下城建设的首要标准;健全气象预警信息决策与红色预警“叫应”机制。(2)智能应灾的过程性技术体系需要建立区域能源管理系统,实现街区间电力融通,灾中优先保障生命线设备的供电。(3)智能应灾的系统性技术体系需要建设“一中心四平台”信息分析、决策与联动控制机制,“云上城”与“地上城”“地下城”三城影像联动。韧性城市是可持续的物质系统和制度系统的结合体,智慧应灾社会体系首先要建设以政府为核心、确保城市公共安全的公助体系,实施按时间系列的灾情预判,加大新闻报道透明度和权威度,正确引导社会关切。二是建设以社区与单位组织为核心、确保集体共同安全的共助体系。三是建设保障居民自身安全的个体与家庭自助体系。三体系的规划、建设和运转贯穿灾前、灾中、灾后全过程,智慧应对尤其体现在公助、共助与自助之间的系统性联系上,实现网络空间和现实社会的高度融合,在必要的时间为需要的人提供相应的物品、服务,为所有人特别是脆弱群体提供必要服务,超越年龄、性别、职业等差异,让所有人都能够参与应对气候风险的韧性城市的共建、共治、共享。

There have been many rainstorm and flood records throughout history in the Baiyangdian Area where the Xiong’an New Ar⁃ea is located.In the future,increasing extreme weather events such as rainstorms,floods,high temperatures,heat waves,and heavy smog could aggravate potential climate risks.The primary task for ensuring the millennium plan of the Xiong’an New Area is the con⁃struction of resilient cities to respond to climate risks.The establishment of a‘dual system,’which includes the intelligent disaster re⁃sponse technology system and the smart disaster response social system,to adapt to extreme climate risks,is the fundamental approach of resilient urban governance.Taking the construction of resilient cities in the Xiong’an New Area as an example and based on ana⁃lyzing the potential impact of future extreme climate risks on this area,this study decomposes urban resilience into three levels:struc⁃tural resilience,process resilience,and systematic resilience.It points out that the intelligent disaster response technology system needs to focus on urban spatial resilience planning,build a watershed-based natural dredging system,ensure the flood response ability of the urban lifeline,take the modernization of disaster prevention capacity as the primary standard for the construction of underground cities,and improve the meteorological information decision-making of early warning and the‘call response’red alert mechanism.Secondly,a regional energy management system should be established in the process technology system of intelligent disaster response to achieve inter-block power integration and give priority to ensuring the power supply of lifeline equipment in disasters.Finally,a mechanism of‘one center and four platforms’in the systematic technical system of intelligent disaster response should be established for information analysis,decision-making,and linkage control with the image linkage of three cities:‘cloud city,’‘overground city,’and‘underground city.’A resilient city is regarded as a combination of sustainable material system and institutional system.A public assistance system should be established in the smart disaster response social system first,with the government as the core,to ensure urban public safety.This system should implement a series of disaster prediction mechanisms by time,increase the transparency and authority of news re⁃ports,and correctly guide social concerns.Secondly,a co-assistance system should be established with community and unit organiza⁃tions as the core to ensure collective common security.Thirdly,an individual and family self-help system should be established to en⁃sure the safety of residents.The planning,construction,and operation of these three systems run through the whole process before,dur⁃ing,and after the disaster.A smart response should be especially reflected in the systematic relationship between self-help,public assis⁃tance,and co-assistance.We need to achieve a high degree of integration between cyberspace and the real society,provide necessary goods and services for those in need when necessary,and provide high-quality services for all,especially vulnerable groups.We also need to break down disparities such as age,gender,occupation,and so on,so that everyone can participate in the co-construction,cogovernance,and sharing of resilient cities to respond to climate risks.