基于结构优化演进的雄安新区碳中和路径选择

Path selection for carbon neutrality in the Xiong’an New Area based on structural optimization and evolution

碳中和是人类活动的碳排放源与自然碳汇及人为固碳达到平衡的状态。雄安新区建设近6年来,发展框架形成了体量增长与质量优化的双重格局,人口结构、产业结构、能源结构和空间结构将发生重大变革,要素禀赋结构优化演进将促进区域气候治理能力现代化水平的提升。在雄安新区建设尚处于初期阶段的背景下,新结构布局对于建设社会主义现代化样板城市至关重要,应对气候变化领域的科学规划决策将使区域尽快建成生态文明高地和国际水平的碳中和示范区。在国家大力倡导生态文明建设的背景下,文章对雄安新区发展新能源的资源禀赋、所取得的成就进行了总结,全面分析了碳达峰、碳中和“双碳”背景下雄安新区在迈向碳中和目标过程中面临的机遇和挑战,分析了雄安新区结构调整的趋势和碳通量计算与碳排放清单编制方法,提出了当前雄安新区碳中和路径在经济高质量发展、可持续消费方式、能源高效管理、碳汇建设等领域存在的问题,并提出了相应的对策建议。该研究认为,雄安新区碳中和将经历初始碳中和、波动碳中和与稳态碳中和三个发展阶段,究其原因,在于雄安新区在初建阶段同步开展绿电规划且绿电供给有余,随着人口与经济规模的扩张,能源需求量迅速攀升导致绿电供给比率下降,出现碳中和波动现象,到人口和经济结构处于稳态发展阶段,高附加值高技术产业比例的提升,以及绿电等能源利用技术的进步,则进入稳态碳中和发展阶段。从与碳源相对应的碳汇潜力分析,雄安新区蓝绿空间与建设用地的规划比例使得其碳汇能力在很长阶段保持在相对稳定的状态,因此除了自然碳汇系统的增值以外,碳捕获、利用与封存技术等人工碳汇手段可作为碳中和系统下的调适工具。

China has pledged to peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.New energy decar⁃bonization will be a major focus area for achieving the‘dual carbon’goals since it accounts for about 20 percent of China’s total ener⁃gy consumption.The Xiong’an New Area’s geographical advantages and natural endowments have brought abundant wind and solar en⁃ergy resources and have huge development potential in the field of new energy development.This paper summarizes the Xiong’an New Area’s resource endowment and achievements in developing new energy,and comprehensively analyzes the opportunities and challeng⁃es faced by this area in the process of building a national new energy demonstration zone in the context of achieving the‘dual carbon’goals.It sorts out the new energy development policy of the Xiong’an New Area and its history of new energy development and then points out that the current development of new energy in this area lies in power project construction,power grid construction,green ener⁃gy consumption,energy storage development,and new energy equipment.This study believes that the Xiong’an New Area will experi⁃ence three development stages of carbon neutrality:initial carbon neutrality,fluctuating carbon neutrality,and stable carbon neutrality,because this area has carried out green power planning simultaneously in the initial construction stage and has more green power sup⁃ply.With the expansion of population and economic scale,the rapid increase in energy demand would lead to the decline in green pow⁃er supply ratio,causing carbon neutrality to fluctuate and change over time.With the population and economic structure in a stable de⁃velopment stage,the proportion of high-value-added and high-tech industries would increase,and energy utilization technologies such as green electricity would make progress,resulting in the arrival of the stable carbon neutrality development stage.On the other hand,from the perspective of carbon sink potential corresponding to carbon sources,the planned proportion of the blue-green space and the construction land in the Xiong’an New Area would keep its carbon sink capacity in a relatively stable state for a long period of time.Therefore,in addition to the value-added of the natural carbon sink system,carbon capture,utilization and storage technologies and oth⁃er means of artificial carbon sink can be used as adjustment tools under the carbon neutrality system.