政府预期目标制定的高质量发展效应:权衡“增速”与“绿色”

Effects of high⁃quality development set by the government’s expected targets:balancing‘growth’with‘green development’

研究中国地方政府年初制定的预期性经济增长目标和环境约束目标对高质量发展的影响,在一定程度上能为优化预期目标管理、完善宏观调控、提升新发展阶段下的政府治理效能提供经验证据。为此,该研究分别基于经济增长核算理论和随机前沿模型计算了城市层面的高质量发展水平,采用文本分析提取《政府工作报告》中的经济增长目标和环境约束目标,并基于空间权重矩阵构建工具变量,进而探讨地方政府制定的预期性发展目标对高质量发展的影响、条件异质性及形成逻辑。研究结果表明:(1)过高的经济增长目标不利于高质量发展,而环境约束目标对其有显著的促进作用,且能缓释过高经济增长目标对高质量发展的侵蚀效应,该结论在解决内生性偏误等系列稳健性检验后依旧成立。(2)异质性分析发现,中国经济能实现“量增质优”的双赢。为更好地推进高质量发展,发达城市的目标定位要弱化经济增量,强化环境约束,且地方制定的增长目标和环境约束目标要内生于自身的资源禀赋且适当留有弹性空间。(3)机制检验显示,提高经济增长目标降低了地区的创新水平,拉高了地区的新增投资量,不利于高质量发展;而环境约束目标能促进技术创新并限制新增投资量的盲目扩张,进而促进了高质量发展。基于上述研究结论,该研究从政绩考核、预期性发展目标的制定、技术创新和绿色发展的政策保障方面为推动中国实现“经济增长”与“绿色”的协同、形成预期目标管理与高质量发展的同频共振总结了政策启示。

Studying the effects of expected economic growth targets and environmental constraint targets set by Chinese local govern⁃ments at the beginning of the year on high-quality development can provide empirical evidence for optimizing expected target manage⁃ment,improving macro-control,and fulfilling governance efficiency in the new development stage to some extent.Therefore,based on the theory of economic growth accounting and the stochastic frontier model,this paper calculated the level of high-quality development at the urban level,extracted the economic growth targets and environmental constraint targets from the Report on the Work of the Govern⁃ment with text analysis,constructed instrumental variables based on the spatial weight matrix,and then discussed the effects of the ex⁃pected development targets formulated by local governments on high-quality development,conditional heterogeneity,and mechanisms.The results showed that:①Excessive economic growth targets were not conducive to high-quality development,while environmental constraints targets had a significant role in promoting it and could slow down the erosion effect of excessive economic growth targets on high-quality development.This conclusion still held after solving a series of robustness tests,such as the endogenous bias.②Heteroge⁃neity analysis found that,with the implementation of the ecological civilization concept,China’s economy could achieve a win-win situ⁃ation of quantity increase and quality improvement.To better promote high-quality development,the target positioning of cities with good economic foundations should weaken economic increment and strengthen environmental constraints,and the growth targets and en⁃vironmental constraints set by local governments should be endogenous to their own regional resource endowments and leave appropri⁃ate elastic spaces.③The mechanism test showed that improving the economic growth targets reduced the level of innovation and raised the amount of new investment in the region,which was not conducive to high-quality development.Environmental constraints could pro⁃mote technological innovation and limit the blind expansion of new investment,thus promoting high-quality development.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper summarizes policy implications from the aspects of political performance evaluation,formulation of expected development targets,technological innovation,and green development to promote the synergy between economic growth and green development in China and the synchronization of expected target management and high-quality development.