气候变化背景下沙蓬属(Agriophyllum)物种潜在地理分布

Potential distribution of the genus Agriophyllum under climate change

沙蓬(Agriophyllum squarrosum)被认为是未来的潜势作物,其野生近缘种表型和遗传变异丰富,对沙蓬驯化和遗传改良具有重要意义。利用沙蓬属(Agriophyllum)5个物种的分布点数据和9种环境变量数据,模拟沙蓬属当前及未来两个时期(2050s和2070s)不同气候情景下的潜在分布。采用刀切法筛选关键环境因子,kuenm数据包优化模型参数,最后预测分析了未来沙蓬属物种适生区的空间变化。结果表明:(1)MaxEnt模型预测沙蓬属潜在分布的精度高,AUC值为0.957±0.006,当前总适生区的面积为1 731.50万km^(2),其中高适生区面积为462.35万km^(2),沙蓬属可广泛分布在亚洲中纬度干旱和半干旱地区;(2)在未来气候变化情景下,沙蓬属潜在适生区有向高纬度和高海拔地区扩张的趋势;(3)温度是影响沙蓬属物种分布的主导环境因子。

Agriophyllum squarrosum is considered as a potential crop for the future,and its wild relatives are rich in phenotypic and genetic variation,which is of great significance for the domestication and genetic modification of A.squarrosum.Based on the distribution data of five species and nine environmental variables,the potentially suitable habitats of Agriophyllum were simulated for the current and two future periods(the 2050s and 2070s),whereas different climate scenarios were included for future simulations.The Jackknife test was applied to evaluate the environmental factors affecting the suitable areas of Agriophyllum and kuenm data package to optimize model parameters.Finally,the spatial changes of suitable areas of Agriophyllum in the future were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)MaxEnt model has high accuracy in predicting the potential distribution,with the AUC value of 0.957±0.006.The current total suitable area of Agriophyllum is 1731.50×104 km^(2),and the highly suitable area is 462.35×104 km^(2),which can be widely distributed in the mid-latitude arid and semi-arid regions of Asia.(2)Under future climate change scenarios,the potential distribution regions of Agriophyllum tend to expand to high latitudes and high altitudes.(3)Temperature is the principal environmental factor affecting the distribution.