山东省干旱灾害风险评估与区划

Risk Assessment and Zoning of Drought Disasters in Shandong Province

山东省作为中国的农业大省,是最重要的粮食主产区之一,受季风气候影响,是干旱灾害的易发区和重灾区,因此对山东省干旱开展灾害风险评估与区划有助于更加科学地抵御干旱灾害,对于改善山东省干旱灾害风险管理、提高决策水平、减小经济损失具有一定的指导意义。利用山东省气象、土壤、地形等基本数据以及土地利用类型、归一化植被指数等高精度数据,同时基于自然灾害风险评估原理,运用加权综合评价法和层次分析法等方法,使用GIS空间分析技术对山东省干旱灾害进行风险性评估与区划。结果表明,山东省干旱危险性较高,中、高危险性地区占总面积的59.40%,高危险性地区主要分布在山东省西北部和胶东半岛东部;承灾体暴露性偏高,中、高暴露性地区占总面积的70.66%,高暴露性地区主要分布于山东省西部和南部,中部也有部分区域暴露性较高;承灾体脆弱性略高,中、高脆弱性地区占总面积的48.1%,高脆弱性地区主要分布在山东省西南部;防灾减灾能力较强,中、高防灾减灾能力地区占总面积的50.87%,高防灾减灾能力地区主要分布在胶东半岛和北部部分区域;山东省干旱综合风险性偏高,中、高综合风险地区占总面积的54.04%,主要分布在西部和中部,东部较低。

As a major agricultural province in China,Shandong is one of the most important grain-producing areas in the country.The province is affected by the monsoon climate and is prone to drought disaster.Therefore,the disaster risk assessment and zoning of drought in Shandong Province can prevent drought disasters more scientifically,which is of certain guiding significance to improving drought disaster risk management,enhancing decision-making and reducing economic losses.Based on the principle of natural disaster risk assessment,this paper used the basic data of meteorology,soil and topography,and highprecision data of land use type and normalized differential vegetation index in Shandong,adopted the methods of weighted comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process,as well as GIS spatial analysis technology,to assess and zone the risk of drought.The results showed that the risk of drought in Shandong was high,areas with medium and high risk accounted for 59.40%of the total,and the high risk areas were mainly located in the northwestern part of Shandong and the eastern part of Jiaodong peninsula.The exposure of disaster-bearing bodies was high,areas with medium and high exposure accounted for 70.66%of the total,and the high exposure areas were mainly located in the western and southern parts of Shandong,and some areas in the central part were also highly exposed.The vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies was slightly high,areas with medium and high vulnerability accounted for 48.1%of the total,and high vulnerability areas were mainly located in the southwestern part of Shandong.The disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of Shandong was strong,areas with medium and high disaster prevention and mitigation capacity accounted for 50.87%of the total,and areas with high disaster prevention and mitigation capacity were mainly located in the Jiaodong peninsula and some areas in the north of the province.The comprehensive risk of drought in Shandong was high,areas with medium and high comprehensive risk accounted for 54.04%of the total,and mainly located in the western and central parts of Shandong,and the eastern part of the province had relatively low comprehensive risk of drought.