撤制镇会走向衰落吗?——基于上海(2000—2003年)的准自然实验

Will Abolished Towns Go to Fall?--An Empirical Research on Quasi-Natural Experiment of Shanghai

撤制镇是构建新型城乡体系和促进城乡融合发展的重要环节之一。本文以上海2000年至2003年间的镇级行政区划调整作为“准自然实验”,运用GIS方法复原撤制镇统计数据,应用双重差分模型实证撤制政策的后续效应。研究发现:撤销建制对于镇区发展有显著的负向影响,撤制镇的常住人口规模较之未发生撤并的对照组显著下降;而合并后的新镇及其主镇的人口规模均显著上升。影响机制分析表明:较高级别的基础教育设施如中学与常住人口规模显著正相关,区县级别配置的医院则表现为不显著或负相关,居住用地占比在撤制镇、主镇和合并镇规模均显著正相关。由此,本文建议要导入治理资源,夯实镇管社区;完善公共服务设施,激活社区功能;盘活存量土地资源,有序引导人口集聚。

The abolished towns are an important part of the new type of urban-rural hierarchy system and the integrated development.The article takes Shanghai's townlevel administrative division adjustments between 2000 and 2003 as a quasi-natural experiment.After rebuilding statistical data of abolished towns by GIS,the article applies the Difference-in-Difference(DID)model to empirically demonstrate subsequent effects of administrative merger policies.It’s found that the abolished towns have a significantly negative effect on the township development,with the resident population observably decreasing compared to control groups.While in new towns and main towns,both their sizes of resident population increase markedly.To explore influence mechanisms,it is shown that higher-level basic education facilities such as secondary schools have significantly positive correlation with the size of resident population;while the configuration of district-level or county-level hospitals shows a non-significant or negative correlation with the resident population;and the land use proportion of residential land is significantly positively correlated with the resident population of both abolished and new,also main towns.Accordingly,the article proposes policy suggestions from the aspect of reinforcing management structures,improving public facilities and revitalizing land resources.