四平市国土空间结构演变分析与多情景预测

Spatial structure evolution analysis and multi-scenario forecast of Siping City

以四平市为研究区域,分析了四平市1985—2020年国土空间动态演变特征,探究了区域国土空间变化机理,并基于FLUS模型模拟了未来不同情景下国土空间利用分布结构,为地区土地政策、国土规划提供科学支持.结果表明:四平市国土空间利用情况主要以农业生产用地为主,1985—2020年,农业生产用地、其他生产用地、城镇生活用地、农村生活用地表现出增加趋势.草地生态用地、水域生态用地和其他生态用地表现出减少趋势,其中,草地生态用地变化明显,减少了208 km^(2).与2020年相比,三种情景下生态用地均呈减少趋势,生产用地均呈增加趋势,生活用地在自然发展情景和经济发展情景下呈增加趋势,而生态保护情景呈减少趋势,经济发展情景下四平市生产用地增加了335 km^(2);生态保护情景下四平市林地生产空间相较自然发展情景增加了180 km^(2).

Taking Siping City as the research area,the dynamic evolution characteristics of national land space in Siping City during 1985—2020 were analyzed,the mechanism of regional national land space change was explored,the utilization and distribution structure of national land space under different scenarios in the future was simulated based on the FLUS model to provide scientific support for regional land policy and national land planning.The results show that the land use of Siping City is mainly land for agricultural production.From 1985 to 2020,land for agricultural production,land for other productions,land for urban living and land for rural living show an increasing trend.Grassland ecological land,water ecological land and other ecological land showed a decreasing trend,among which the grassland ecological land changed significantly,reducing by 208 km^(2).Compared with 2020,the ecological land under the three scenarios showed a decreasing trend,while the productions land showed an increasing trend.The land for living increased under the natural development scenario and the economic development scenario,while the ecological protection scenario showed a decreasing trend.Under the economic development scenario,the production land in Siping City increased by 335 km^(2).In the ecological protection scenario,the forest production space in Siping City increased by 180 km^(2) compared with the natural development scenario.