西藏城乡融合指标体系构建、测度与评价

On the Construction,Measurement and Evaluation of Urban-rural Integration Index System in Tibet

用熵权法和门槛模型实证方法对西藏城乡融合水平进行了测度和评价,并对城乡融合发展的作用机制与影响因素进行分析。研究发现:首先,从总体上看,西藏城乡融合发展水平有所提升但整体水平偏低,2015年之前上升趋势平稳,2015年之后波动性较大;从区域层面看,西藏七地市的城乡融合水平区域差异较大,拉萨市城乡融合发展水平最高,日喀则次之,山南市、林芝市、昌都市再次之,那曲市、阿里地区位于末尾;从时空演化趋势上看,西藏七地市城乡融合发展空间演化特征经历了由低融合区“一片连”、单一核心中心极化逐步到整体相对均衡融合发展、城市间城乡融合发展差距缩小、单一核心中心极化特征减弱的变迁。从结构特征上看,西藏城乡融合保障、动力、结果三个层面均有不同程度的提高。其次,西藏城乡融合发展主要受到产业结构升级、城镇化水平、公共管理和社会组织职工工资总额的影响。产业结构升级在不同的经济发展阶段对西藏城乡融合发展的影响有着明显的阶段性成效。当经济发展水平较低时,产业结构升级对西藏城乡融合发展显现出强劲的推动作用,这种积极的促进作用在1%的统计水平上显著。一旦经济发展水平进入一定阶段后,这种正向作用将会减弱,内生性处理和稳健性检验结论保持一致。

Measurement and evaluation has been done on the urban-rural integration in Tibet by using the entropy weight method,exploratory spatial statistics method and threshold model,and the mechanism and influencing factors of its urban-rural integration were analyzed.The findings are as follows:firstly,on the whole,the level of the urban-rural integration in Tibet has been improved,but the overall level is low.By 2015,the upward trend was stable,but after 2015,it fluctuates greatly.From a regional perspective,there is a big difference in the level of urban-rural integration among the seven prefectural cities in Tibet.Lhasa is in the highest level,followed by Shigatse,Shannan,Nyingchi and Chamdo,and Naqu and Ngari are in the lowest.From the perspective of tempo⁃ral and spatial evolution,the spatial evolution of the urban-rural integration in the seven prefectures of Tibet have undergone a gradual change from the low-integration to the overall relatively balanced integration,narrow⁃ing the urban-rural integration gap between cities,and weakening the polarization.In regard to structural charac⁃teristics,the guarantee,motivation and result of the urban-rural integration in Tibet have been improved to vary⁃ing degrees.Secondly,the integration in Tibet is mainly affected by the upgrading of industrial structure,the lev⁃el of urbanization,the total wages of employees in public management and social organizations.The upgrading of industrial structure in different stages of economic development has an obvious phased effect on the urban-rural integration in Tibet.When the level of economic development is low,the upgrading of industrial structure strong promotion effect on promoting the integration,and this positive role is significant at the statistical level of 1%.Once the level of economic development reaches a certain stage,this positive effect will be weakened,and the en⁃dogeneity treatment and robustness test results are consistent.