基于模糊层次分析法的涉自然灾害网络舆情风险评估

Risk Assessment of Online Public Opinion Related to Natural Disasters Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Method

构建基于模糊理论的定量和定性分析并重的风险评估体系,是为了弥补既有涉自然灾害舆情风险评估过于侧重量化研究而导致的可靠性缺陷,从而为相关舆情治理提供科学和有效的支撑。通过模糊综合评价法求得风险因素的隶属度,结合加权平均数筛选出指标,以“双合格”为标准构建了风险评估的指标体系,并通过层次分析法获得各指标元素的权重,以帕累托分析法完成各指标的风险等级划分;指出涉自然灾害舆情风险来源于社会领域大于自然领域,其中“灾害应对”层面的风险最大;阐释了指标体系应用过程中的静态结构和动态变化、一般性和特殊性。

The establishment of a risk assessment system based on fuzzy theory that emphasizes both quantitative and qualitative analysis is aimed at compensating for the shortcomings in reliability caused by the excessive emphasis on quan⁃titative research in public opinion risk assessments related to natural disasters,thereby providing scientific and effective support for relevant public opinion governance.This paper obtains the membership degree of risk factors by the fuzzy com⁃prehensive evaluation method,and screens out the indicators in combination with the weighted average,constructs an in⁃dicator system for risk assessment based on the“double qualified”standard,obtains the weight of each indicator element through the analytic hierarchy method,and completes the risk classification of each indicator by the Pareto analysis meth⁃od;points out that the risk of public opinion related to natural disasters originates from the social domain rather than the natural domain,with the“disaster response”level having the greatest risk;explains the static structure and dynamic changes,generality,and particularity of the application process of the indicator system.