基于平准化成本的绿氢产业经济性研究

Study on Economy of Green Hydrogen Industry Based on Levelized Cost

该文立足我国经济社会发展全面绿色转型的大背景,针对传统经济性评价方法的不足,借鉴氢气平准化成本指标,完善了适用于绿氢产业的经济性评价方法,并运用新方法开展绿氢产业经济性现状剖析和前景展望。研究发现,现阶段绿氢产业整体欠缺成本竞争力,制取成本约为灰氢2倍,长管拖车在氢气运输环节使用最广但成本最高,加氢成本因缺乏市场规模支撑居高不下;未来,绿氢产业链成本将在技术进步主导、市场规模扩张托举下持续大幅下降,预计绿氢炼化产业链将于2035年前后迎来经济性“拐点”,绿氢交通产业链将在2045年前获得成本竞争力。建议以经济性为基础,科学规划各个阶段绿氢产品定位和产业发展重点;以产业制造为基石,加快关键技术攻关和装备国产化进程;以基础设施建设为抓手,积极培育健康有序的绿氢产业生态。

Under the Dual Carbon target,this article is to improve the economic evaluation method for green hydrogen industry,basing on the indicator of Levelized Cost of Hydrogen.Through analyzing the current situation of China's green hydrogen industry,it is found that the industry is lack of cost competitiveness overall,because the LCOH of green hydrogen is about twice that of gray hydrogen,tube trailer is the most widely used means of hydrogen transport but cost highest,and the refueling cost remains high because the market demand is small.It is prospected that the inflection point of green hydrogen will appear in around 2035.The cost reduction process of green hydrogen will be led by technological progress,as well as be affected by scale effect and the development of green electricity.This article suggests to formulate industrial development plans based on economy,speed up the process of scientific research and transform the achievement into productivity,as well as cultivate a healthy green hydrogen industry ecology through infrastructure construction.