中国跨越“中高端制造业陷阱”:一个制造业合理比重假说与政策选择

China's Crossing the"Mid-to-High-End Manufacturing Trap":A Reasonable Manufacturing Proportion Hypothesis and Policy Choices

关于产业结构变迁的理论认为,制造业比重在经济发展中呈现先上升后下降的“倒U型”结构。然而,研究发现,随着人均GDP的增加,各国制造业比重存在离散度加大的典型事实。一些发展中国家出现过早去工业化现象。与此同时,德国等制造强国出现工业深化现象,制造业比重没有出现明显的“倒U型”变化,而是稳定在较高水平。基于中高端制造业的技术与市场特征,提出中高端制造业与低端制造业的异质性导致制造业比重离散化的假说,作出各国制造业比重变化中可能存在“中高端制造业陷阱”的判断。根据中国人均GDP发展目标,建立一套计算制造业合理比重的方法,测算中国2050年之前三个发展阶段的制造业合理比重目标范围。结果表明,当前中国制造业比重处于合理区间。中国制造业合理比重的目标范围总体保持稳定,2025年、2035年、2050年分别为24.1%~26.8%、25.4%~28.0%、24.0%~26.0%。在此基础上,进一步测算出省级层面的制造业合理比重,为各省份制造业发展提供参考。中国要采取加强基础研究、鼓励创新、优化营商环境等措施,努力跨越“中高端制造业陷阱”,将制造业比重维持在合理区间,实现持续的经济增长和劳动生产率提升。

According to the theory of industrial structure change,the proportion of manufacturing industry in economic development presents an"inverted U-shaped"structure,which rises first and then declines.However,the study of this paper found that with the increase of per capita GDP,there is a typical fact that the discretization degree of the proportion of manufacturing industry in each country increases.Some developing countries are experiencing premature deindustrialization.At the same time,Germany,South Korea and other manufacturing powers showed industrial deepening.Their manufacturing share did not show an obvious"inverted U-shaped"change,but stabilized at a high level.Based on the technology and market characteristics of the mid-to-high-end manufacturing industry,this paper puts forward the hypothesis that the heterogeneity of the mid-to-high-end manufacturing industry and low-end manufacturing industry leads to the dispersion of the proportion of manufacturing industry,and makes the judgment that there may be the"mid-to-high-end manufacturing trap"in the change of the proportion of manufacturing industry in different countries.According to China's per capita GDP development goal,this paper establishes a set of methods for calculating the reasonable proportion of manufacturing industry,and calculates the target range of the reasonable proportion of manufacturing industry in the three development stages before 2050.The results show that the current proportion of manufacturing industry is in a reasonable range.The target range for the appropriate proportion of manufacturing in China is generally stable,with the target range for 2025,2035 and 2050 being 24.1 percent to 26.8 percent,25.4 percent to 28.0 percent,and 24.0 percent to 26.0 percent respectively.On this basis,this paper further calculates the reasonable proportion of manufacturing industry at the provincial level to provide reference for the development of manufacturing industry in each province.China needs to take measures to strengthen basic research,encourage innovation,improve the business environment to overcome the"mid-to-high-end manufacturing trap",keep the share of manufacturing within a proper range,and achieve sustained economic growth and labor productivity improvement.