重庆市能源消费与环境污染的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Energy Consumption and Environmental Pollution in Chongqing City——Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

我国目前仍是世界上最大的能源消费国,占全球能源消费总量的23%。随着经济的发展以及我国对能源的需求不断增加,环境问题也日益突出。如何促进经济、能源与环境方面的可持续发展,成为社会各界共同关心的问题。本文基于重庆市1995—2021年能源消费总量与环境污染数据,通过建立VAR模型对两者之间的动态关系进行研究。实证结果表明:重庆市能源消费与环境污染存在长期稳定关系;环境污染对能源消费有正向效应;而能源消费的冲击对环境污染有双重效应,对工业废水有反向抑制作用,对废气和固废却有正向促进作用,能在较大程度上带动它们的产生和排放。

China remains the largest energy consumer in the world,accounting for 23%of the total global energy consumption.With the rise of the economy and the increasing demand for energy,environmental issues are becoming increasingly pronounced.Thus,maintaining the sustainable development in terms of economy,energy and environment has become an issue of common concern for all walks of life.To address the issue,this paper investigates the dynamic relationship between energy consumption and environmental pollution in Chongqing based on the data from 1995 to 2021 by establishing a VAR model.The empirical results suggest that there is a long-term stable relationship between the two in that environmental pollution exerts a positive effect on energy consumption,while energy consumption has a double effect on environmental pollution,with a reverse inhibitory effect on industrial wastewater,but a positive effect on waste gas and solids,which can drive their emission to a greater extent.