基于N-K模型的地铁运营安全风险耦合研究

The Subway Operation Safety Risk Based on N-K Model Coupling Research

研究地铁运营安全风险耦合特性,从人员、管理、设备、环境四个维度,以及单因素、双因素和多因素三个方面进行风险耦合分析,采用N-K模型计算出1969—2017年在各种耦合模式下发生的148起地铁运营安全事故的概率和耦合值,结果表明:参与耦合的风险因素越多,引起的风险事故越大。人员因素是引发地铁运营安全风险事故的主要影响因素,设备因素是导致地铁运营风险的客观因素。在涉及人员和设备因素的耦合过程中,风险耦合程度较大。因此,在地铁运营过程中,避免人员和设备因素发生多因素耦合作用。基于此,本文从管控关键耦合因素、多风险因素之间的关联和各风险因素的危险源源头三方面出发,提出了相应的管控措施,为地铁运营者提供参考依据和决策支持。

Study the coupling characteristics of subway operation safety risk,the risk coupling analysis was carried out from the four dimensions of personnel,management,equipment and environment,as well as from single-factor,two-factor and multi-factor aspects,and the probability and coupling value of 148 subway operation safety accidents that occurred in various coupling modes from 1969 to 2017 were calculated by N-K model.The results show that the more risk factors involved in coupling,the greater the risk accidents caused.Personnel factors are the main influencing factors that cause safety risk accidents in subway operation,and equipment factors are objective factors that lead to subway operation risks.In the coupling process involving personnel factors and equipment factors,the degree of risk coupling is larger.Therefore,in the process of subway operation,we must pay attention to personnel and equipment factors to avoid multi-factor coupling in the subway operation process.Based on this,this paper proposes corresponding control measures from three aspects:the control of key coupling factors,the association between multi-factors and the source of each risk factor,providing reference basis and decision support for metro operators.