基于国际比较视角探讨中国经济发展前景、现实挑战及转型路径

Exploring China's Economic Development Prospects,Realistic Challenges and Transformation Path from the Perspective of International Comparison

当前,中国经济进入新发展阶段,处于重大历史关口,面临世界政治经济和地缘政治秩序大变局;同时中国经济步入改革深水区,未来要跨越“中等收入发展陷阱”也面临诸多挑战。多年来,国内外学界对中国经济发展前景的预测和判断出现较大争论,有乐观论、悲观论,也有中间论,集中反映了中国经济转型发展的复杂性和多元性,特别是在全球化发生深刻变化的特殊时期,如何系统化推进中国经济进一步深化改革和扩大对外开放成为关键命题。本文认为,中国经济所面临的内外部环境既有现实挑战,也有很多机遇,与其他经济体转型遇到的问题具有相似性,但同时又存在特殊性。对此,应坚持历史唯物主义和唯物辩证法思维,一切从实际出发,准确、全面认识中国经济转型发展所处的周期和发展阶段,结合中国国情、经济发展模式和资源禀赋条件,基于国际比较深刻把握中国经济的发展前景、发展韧劲,以及未来增长空间,客观理性看待经济转型过程中可能出现的一系列风险与挑战,在发展中解决问题,同时更要坚定中国经济长期稳定发展的信心,保持战略定力,以改革促发展,以国内大循环拓展内生性增长动能,以国内国际双循环相互促进拓展国际发展空间,牢牢把握战略机遇期和窗口期,释放更大的经济发展潜能,为实现中国式现代化创造深厚的物质基础。

At present,China's economy has entered a new stage of development and is at a major historical juncture,facing a major change in the world's political economy and geopolitical order;at the same time,China's economy has entered a deep water of reform and faces many challenges to cross the"middle-income development trap"in the future.Over the years,the predictions and judgments on China's economic development prospects have been the subject of considerable debate in academic circles at home and abroad,including optimism,pessi⁃mism and intermediate theories,reflecting the complexity and diversity of China's economic transformation and de⁃velopment,especially in the special period of profound changes in globalization,when it has become a key proposi⁃tion to systematically promote China's economy to further deepen reform and expand its opening to the outside world.This paper argues that the internal and external environment faced by China's economy has both real chal⁃lenges and opportunities,and is similar to the problems encountered by other economies in transition,but at the same time there are special characteristics.In this regard,we should adhere to historical materialism and material⁃istic dialectic thinking,start from the practical point of view,accurately understand the cycle and development stage of China's economic transformation and development,take into account China's national conditions,econom⁃ic development model and resource endowment conditions,profoundly grasp China's economic development pros⁃pects,development resilience and future growth space based on international comparisons,objectively and ratio⁃nally view a series of risks and challenges that may arise in the process of economic transformation,and solve prob⁃lems in the process of development.At the same time,it is necessary to maintain the confidence in the long-term stable development of China's economy,maintain strategic determination,promote development with reform,ex⁃pand endogenous growth momentum with the domestic cycle,expand international development space with the do⁃mestic and international cycles promoting each other,firmly grasp the strategic opportunity period and window pe⁃riod,release greater economic development potential,and create a deep material foundation for the realization of Chinese modernization.