中国经济韧性水平测度与时空格局演变分析

Level Measurement and Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution Analysisof China’s Economic Resilience

文章构建了区域经济韧性水平测度指标体系,并利用主成分分析法评估2004—2020年我国省域的经济韧性水平。采用马尔可夫转移概率矩阵、泰尔指数、全局莫兰指数、核密度估计法和变异系数法对省域经济韧性水平的时空演进规律进行分析,包括动态演进规律、区域发展差异性、空间自相关特征、时间演进格局、发展收敛性等。研究结果表明:省域经济韧性在不同发展水平上具有相对稳定性,并且存在向上发展的潜力;研究期内我国省域经济韧性水平存在明显的不平衡特征,且这种不平衡正在逐步扩大;省域经济韧性发展表现出正向的空间自相关性特征;东、中、西三大地区与全国的经济韧性发展呈现趋同性特征,这种趋势在未来可能会更加明显。

This paper constructs an index system for measuring the level of regional economic resilience,uses the principal component analysis method to evaluate the provincial economic resilience level in China from 2004 to 2020,and then employs Markov transition probability matrix,Theil index,global Moran index,kernel density estimation method and coefficient of varia⁃tion method to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution law of provincial economic resilience level,including dynamic evolution law,regional development difference,spatial autocorrelation characteristics,time evolution pattern and development conver⁃gence.The research results are demonstrated as the following:The level of provincial economic resilience is relatively stable at different development levels,and there is potential for upward development.During the study period,there is an obvious imbal⁃ance in the level of provincial economic resilience in China,and this imbalance is gradually expanding.The provincial economic resilience development shows positive spatial autocorrelation characteristics.The development of economic resilience in the east⁃ern,central and western regions and the whole country shows a trend of convergence,which may be more obvious in the future.