中国经济韧性的动态演进特征与区域差异研究

Dynamic Evolution Characteristics and Regional Differences of China’s Economic Resilience

面对各种复杂变化带来的不确定性,增强中国经济韧性是抵御风险冲击的必要条件,也是中国经济长期可持续发展的重要保证。文章基于复杂系统视角,选择熵权TOPSIS法从六个维度测度了1998—2021年中国经济韧性的动态演进特征,运用空间Kernel密度估计方法得到了中国经济韧性的区域差异,使用李雅普诺夫指数分析了中国经济韧性区域差异的动态演进特征。研究发现:中国经济韧性呈动态上升态势,且党的十八大以来中国经济整体韧性及各子维度韧性显著提升;中国经济韧性的东、中、西部地区差异问题仍较为突出,且西部地区内部差异较大,经济韧性的稳定性较弱;中国经济韧性区域差异的动态演进呈现收敛趋势,这为改善中国经济基本面奠定了基础。

In the face of uncertainties brought about by complex changes,strengthening the resilience of the Chinese econo⁃my is a necessary condition to withstand risks and shocks,and also an important guarantee for the long-term sustainable develop⁃ment of the Chinese economy.Based on the perspective of complex systems,this paper selects TOPSIS method of entropy weight to measure the dynamic evolution characteristics of China's economic resilience from 1998 to 2021 from six dimensions,then us⁃es spatial Kernel density estimation to obtain the regional differences of China’s economic resilience,and finally analyzes the dy⁃namic evolution of regional differences of China’s economic resilience by using the Lyapunov index.The research findings are as follows:The resilience of China's economy has shown a dynamic upward trend,and the overall resilience of China's economy and the resilience of sub-dimensions have improved significantly since the 18th National Congress of the CPC.The difference of Chi⁃na’s economic resilience between the east and the west is obvious,and the internal difference of the western region is large,so the stability of economic resilience needs to be strengthened.The dynamic evolution of regional differences in China’s economic resilience shows a convergence trend,which lays a foundation for improving China’s economic stability.