区域贸易协定与企业出口韧性

Regional Trade Agreements and Enterprise Export Resilience

区域贸易协定不仅是我国推进高水平对外开放、实现经济迈向高质量发展的重要动力,也是危机下稳定贸易发展、保障经济复苏的关键因素。通过将2008年全球金融危机作为研究情境,重点探讨危机之前签订并生效的区域贸易协定对我国企业出口韧性的影响及作用机制。结果表明:区域贸易协定是增强企业出口韧性的重要原因,这一结论在经历了稳健性检验及内生性处理后依然成立;作用机制检验发现,减少企业出口风险和提高企业出口产品质量是区域贸易协定增强企业出口韧性的重要渠道;异质性分析发现,区域贸易协定更有助于增强融资约束较高以及年龄较大企业的出口韧性;进一步研究揭示了,相对于企业出口恢复程度,区域贸易协定对企业抵御风险程度的促进作用更强。基于上述实证结果,政府应进一步推进区域经济一体化进程,企业可将区域贸易协定目的国作为重要的出口市场,以便尽可能降低外部冲击带来的负面效应。此外,还需要充分考虑区域贸易协定对不同企业的影响差异,进而有效增强企业出口韧性。

Regional trade agreements are not only an important driving force for China to promote high-level opening-up and achieve high-quality economic development,but also a key factor to stabilize trade development and ensure economic recovery in times of crisis.Taking the 2008 global financial crisis as the research context,this paper focuses on the impact of the regional trade agreements signed and brought into effect before the crisis on the export resilience of Chinese enterprisesand its mechanism.The results show that regional trade agreements are the important reason for the enhancement of the export resilience of enterprises,and this conclusion is still valid after the robustness test and the endogeneity treatment.The results of a function mechanism show that reducing corporate export risks and improving the quality of export products are important channels for regional trade agreements to enhance the export resilience of enterprises.The heterogeneity analysis reveals that regional trade agreements are more conducive to enhancing the export resilience of the older firms with higher financing constraints.Further research shows that compared with the degree of export recovery,regional trade agreements can play a stronger role in promoting the degree of risk resistance of enterprises.Based on the above empirical results,it is suggested that the government should further promote the process of regional economic integration,and enterprises can take the destination country of regional trade agreement as their important export markets,so as to reduce the negative effect resulted from external impact as far as possible.In addition,it is also necessary to fully consider the different impacts of regional trade agreements on different enterprises,so as to effectively enhance the export resilience of enterprises.