地方政府隐性债务风险传染及治理机制——基于国有企业的视角

Study on Contagion and Governance Mechanism of Local Implicit Debt Risk-From the Perspective of State-owned Enterprises

本文着眼于国有企业违约现象,基于SIRS传染病模型,仿真模拟我国地方政府隐性债务风险在国有企业间的传染过程,厘清源于国有企业的地方政府隐性债务风险传染机制。研究表明:当前针对地方政府隐性债务风险在国有企业间的防范与化解卓有成效,但仍存在不可忽视的隐患;且地区间的政府隐性债务风险分化趋势明显。要因地施策,谨防风险的全局性扩散。同时,提升我国国有企业恢复率,也即政府救助,是当前及未来一段时间内控制地方政府隐性债务风险在国有企业间传染的最为有效的手段,但政府不应被隐性债务绑架,要适时择机引入破产机制。既要发挥破产的真正效应,又要预防国有企业违约破产可能引致的系统性风险。

This paper focuses on the frequent defaults of state-owned enterprises,Based on SIRS infectious disease model,this paper simulates the contagion characteristics of local hidden debt risk among state-owned enterprises in China and the influence of different parameters on the contagion process,clarifies the contagion mechanism of local hidden debt among state-owned enterprises.The research shows that the current prevention and resolution of hidden debt risks of local governments among state-owned enterpris-es is effective,but there are still hidden dangers that can not be ignored;Moreover,the trend of government implicit debt risk differentiation among regions is obvious.We should make policies according to local conditions and guard against the overall spread of risks.At the same time,improving the recovery rate of state-owned enterprises in China,that is,government rescue is the most effective means to control the contagion of hidden debt risks among state-owned enterprises at present and in the future,but the government should not be kidnapped by hidden debt and introduce bankruptcy mechanism at the right time.It is necessary to give full play to the real effect of bankruptcy and prevent the systematic risks that may be caused by the default and bankruptcy of state-owned enterprises.