1990-2019年中国非霍奇金淋巴瘤发病趋势分析及预测

Trend analysis and forecast of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma incidence in China from 1990-2019

目的收集GBD数据库中1990-2019年我国非霍奇金淋巴瘤(NHL)的发病率数据,分析发病变化趋势并预测2020-2030年的发病率情况,为NHL的防治工作提供参考。方法收集1990-2019年NHL发病率数据,采用Joinpoint模型分析变化趋势,年龄-时期-队列模型(APC)探讨年龄、时期、队列对发病率的影响,并通过GM(1,1)模型预测2020-2030年发病率。结果NHL整体、男性和女性群体2019年粗发病率分别为6.46(5.41~7.66)/10万、8.36(6.62~10.49)/10万和4.49(3.60~5.55)/10万,标化发病率分别为4.99(4.24~5.87)/10万、6.77(5.44~8.35)/10万和3.36(2.72~4.12)/10万。Joinpoint模型分析结果显示,整体、男性和女性变化趋势分别划分为5、6和6段,平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分别为3.1%、2.3%和3.6%。男性发病率在不同年份和年龄均高于女性发病率。APC模型分析结果显示,整体、男性和女性群体在年龄效应均呈现先下降后上升趋势,分别在75、85和75岁为效应值最高点;时期效应均呈现上升趋势,最高效应值分别为0.7、0.79和0.61;队列效应均呈现下降趋势,最低效应值分别为-2.26、-2.40和-2.19。整体、男性和女性群体GM(1,1)模型精度均为优秀,并预测2030年标化发病率分别为8.1764/10万、12.6193/10万、4.3876/10万。结论NHL发病率呈现逐年上升趋势,不同年份发病率增幅不同,男性群体发病率高于女性群体,老年群体为高危人群;年龄越大、时期越近、出生越早,发病风险越高;2019-2030年NHL发病率将持续增加。

Objective To collect data on the incidence of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma(NHL)in China from 1990-2019 on the Global Burden of Disease database,analyze the trend of incidence changes and predict the incidence in 2020 to 2030 in order to provide a reference for the prevention and treatment of NHL.Methods The data collected on the incidence of NHL from 1990-2019 were analyzed for trends using the Joinpoint model,the age-period-cohort model(APC)was used to exploit the effects of age,period,and cohort on incidence,and the GM(1,1)model to predict the incidence over 2020 to 2030.Results The crude incidence rates of NHL in 2019 for the overall,male and female groups were 6.46(5.41-7.66)/100000,8.36(6.62-10.49)/100000 and 4.49(3.60-5.55)/100000,respectively,with a standardized incidence rate incidence of 4.99(4.24-5.87)/100000,6.77(5.44-8.35)/100000 and 3.36(2.72-4.12)/100000.The results of the Joinpoint model analysis showed that the overall,male and female trends were divided into 5,6 and 6 segments,respectively,with average annual change percentages(AAPCs)of 3.1%,2.3%and 3.6%,respectively.The results of the APC model showed that the overall,male and female groups presented decreasing and then increasing age effects,with the highest effects at 75,85 and 75 years of age,respectively;the period effects showed increasing trends,with the highest effects at 0.7,0.79 and 0.61,respectively;the cohort effects showed decreasing trends,with the lowest effects at-2.26,-2.40and-2.19,respectively.The accuracy of the GM(1,1)model was excellent for the overall,male and female groups,and predicted the standardized incidence rates of 8.1764/100000,12.6193/100000and 4.3876/100000in2030,respectively.Conclusion The incidence of NHL shows an increasing trend year by year,and the incidence rate increases differently in different years;the incidence rate of male group is higher than that of female group,and the elderly group is the high-risk group;the older the age,the more recent the period,and the earlier the birth,the higher the risk of incidence;the incidence rate of NHL will continue to increase from 2019to 2030.