扩大进口背景下中国进口对世界经济的影响——制造业就业的视角

The Impact of China’s Imports on the World Economy under the Background of Expanding Imports:Perspective of Manufacturing Employment

伴随着中国经济的快速增长,中国在成为世界第一大出口国的同时也成为世界第二大进口国。以往对中国贸易的研究多是从供给端出发,然而从需求端来看,中国进口对世界经济的影响又有几何?本文在扩大进口战略背景下从全球制造业就业的视角对中国进口与世界经济的关系进行了实证分析,研究发现,通过对中国出口,相关国家的制造业就业实现正增长,但是两者关系会在不同贸易商品、经济发展程度和时间样本之间存在差异。在此基础上,本文进一步从就业创造和就业破坏等方面展开了机制分析。本文的研究表明,中国通过“世界市场”的角色在一定程度上降低了全球失业率,但同时也需警惕“进口竞争”对我国经济的影响。

With the rapid growth of China’s economy,China has become the world’s largest exporter and the world’s second largest importer.Previous studies on China’s trade mostly started from the supply side.However,from the demand side,what is the impact of China’s imports on the world economy?Empirical analysis has been used of the relationship between China’s imports and the world economy from the perspective of global manufacturing employment under the background of import expansion strategy.The results show as follows.Through exports to China,manufacturing employment in relevant countries can achieve positive growth,but the relationship between the two will vary among different samples of traded commodities,economic development degree and time.On this basis,China has reduced the global unemployment rate to some extent through the role of“world market”,but the government also need to be vigilant about the impact of“import competition”on our economy.