中国产业转型升级:国际比较与前景展望

China's Industrial Transformation and Upgrading:International Comparison and Prospect

大国的产业转型和结构升级体现在产业的高度化和合理化这两方面的对立统一上,受到技术进步、社会需求和国际分工等因素的影响。发达国家经历从工业化向后工业化时代的产业转型升级,呈现复杂图景。一些后工业化国家既享受了“绿色环境”红利,也承受了“产业空心化”痛苦并落入了“中等收入陷阱”。再工业化或新工业革命是对其负面效应的纠错。中国走过了大国产业转型升级的艰辛之路,正在迈向后工业化时代,但是在结构高度化方向上有所超前,在结构合理化方向上有所滞后。相对低效的农业成为现代产业体系的一个软肋。总结中外经验的基本认知是产业体系转型升级要遵循基本经济规律;积极参与国际分工是产业转型升级的捷径;大国经济的独特优势能够在一定程度上实现超越式转型升级;战略规划和体制建设是关键推动因素。未来构建现代化产业体系的重点是加快推进农业现代化,强化大国农业基础;加快数字技术推广应用,建设数字中国;大力推进制造业与服务业一体化;加快生活性和公共性服务业发展。

The industrial transformation and structural upgrading of large economies are embodied in the two opposing aspects of structural supererogation and rationalization,which are influenced by technological progress,social demand and international division of labor.Developed countries experience industrial transformation and upgrading during their transition from industrialization to post-industrialization era,which presents a complex picture.Some post-industrialized countries have enjoyed the"green environment"dividend,but suffered from"industrial hollowing out"and fell into the"middle income trap"as well.Re-industrialization or the new industrial revolution is the rectification of its negative ffects.China has gone through the arduous path of industrial and economic transformation and upgrading,and is moving toward the post-industrial era,but it is ahead of the curve in structural supererogation and lagging behind in structural rationalization.Relatively inefficient agriculture has become a soft underbelly of the modern industrial system.The essential lessons in summing up Chinese and foreign experiences are as follows:first,the transformation and upgrading of industrial system should follow basic economic laws;second,active participation in international division of labor is a shortcut to industrial transformation and upgrading;third,the unique advantages of large economies can achieve transcendent transformation and upgrading to a certain extent;and fourth,strategic planning and institutional building are key drivers.The focus of building a modern industrial system in the future is to accelerate the modernization of agriculture and solidify the agricultural foundation,speed up the promotion and application of digital technology and build a digital China,vigorously pursue the integration of manufacturing and service industries,and accelerate the development of public utilities and public service industries.