“双碳”目标下长江经济带城市碳足迹压力非均衡性研究

Disequilibrium Study of City Carbon Footprint Pressure in Yangtze River Economic Belt Under“Dual Carbon”Target

长江经济带肩负率先实现“双碳”目标的重大使命,亟待准确把握长江经济带城市减排增汇压力现状及其非均衡性。在计算2000~2019年中国336个地级及以上城市碳排放和碳汇数据的基础上,构建城市碳足迹压力指数,在全国视野下识别长江经济带城市减排增汇压力,并分别采用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计和局域莫兰指数考察其区域差异、分布动态和空间集聚特征,从多个维度探究其非均衡性。研究发现:(1)长江经济带城市碳足迹压力低于长江经济带以外区域及全国平均水平。上中下游差异明显,呈梯度递增空间格局。(2)从区域差异来看,总体差异水平较大,呈扩大趋势。差异分解表明,区域间净差异是总体差异的主要来源,且主要表现为上下游之间的差异。(3)从分布动态来看,绝对差异水平较大,同时存在明显的多极分化特征。(4)从空间集聚来看,同时存在4种空间集聚类型。上游和中游以低低集聚为主,下游以高高集聚为主。

Yangtze River Economic Belt(YEB)has a major mission to take the lead in achieving the“Dural Carbon”target,and it is urgent to accurately identify the pressure of reducing emissions and increasing sinks in YEB and its disequilibrium characteristics.Based on the calculation of carbon emission and carbon sink data of 336 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2000 to 2019,this paper constructs an index of“city carbon footprint pressure”to identify the pressure of reducing emissions and increasing sinks of cities in YEB in a national perspective,and study its characteristics of regional differences,distribution dynamics and spatial agglomeration using Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation and local Moran index,respectively,to explore its disequilibrium from multiple dimensions.The results show that:(1)the carbon footprint pressure of cities in YEB is lower than that of both regions outside YEB and the national average.There are obvious differences between the upper,middle and lower reaches,showing a spatial pattern with gradient increasing.(2)From the perspective of regional differences,the overall difference is large and tends to expand.The difference decomposition shows that the net difference between regions is the main source of the overall difference,and it is mainly caused by the difference between upper and lower reaches.(3)From the perspective of distribution dynamics,the absolute differences is large,while there are obvious multi-polar differentiation characteristics.(4)From the perspective of spatial agglomeration,there are four types of spatial agglomeration.The upper and middle reaches of YEB are dominated by low-low spatial agglomeration,and the lower reaches of YEB is dominated by high-high spatial agglomeration.