拜登政府为何坚持对华实施贸易战

Explaining the Biden Administration's Continuity on Trade War Against China

美国对华实施的贸易战已逾四年,虽然在此期间美国遭遇了供应链动荡和通货膨胀高企等经济问题,但拜登政府依然决定维持对华经贸制裁。本文从关税战和科技战两个角度分析了拜登政府的决策动因。拜登政府执政以来,美国对华关税战虽停止升级,但原来加征的关税仍在维持,其主因在于选民、企业、利益集团和决策集团中反对关税战的声音不足,对华强硬派发挥了主导作用。同时,以阻止中国获得美国高科技产品和技术为主要表现的对华科技战进一步升级。从目前来看,美国对华经济遏制的政策至少在拜登政府剩余任期内会持续下去,中美经济短期虽难以“全面脱钩”,但相互依赖程度将会显著下降;美国联合盟友在科技领域围堵中国和推进“供应链脱钩”的举措将会延续;美国还可能在投资领域对华实施新的制裁。

The U.S.has been engaged in a trade war against China for more than four years.The Biden administration has insisted on maintaining the economic and trade sanctions against China,though the U.S.has encountered economic difficulties such as supply chain turmoil and high inflation.This article would address the motivations of the Biden administration decisionmaking regarding tariff and technological factors.Since taking the office,the Biden administration has halted the escalation of tariff war while maintaining the tariff already imposed on China,due to the hardliners prevailing over the tariff war opponents.Meanwhile,the scientific and technological war against China,mainly to prevent China from obtaining high-tech products and technologies from the U.S.,has been further escalated.Considering the policy inclination,the U.S.economic containment against China will be remained in the Biden administration.Even though a complete economic decoupling between the U.S.and China would not be achieved in the short term,the interdependence would be remarkedly reduced.Measures by the U.S.and its allies to contain China in high-tech field and to promote“supply chain decoupling”will be continued,and new restrictions might also be imposed on China in the field of investment.