经济制裁对目标国价值链的影响研究

Impact of economic sanctions on the global value chain of the target country

本文主要基于1990-2018年跨国投入产出表和经济制裁数据,研究了经济制裁对于目标国家的附加值和全球价值链位置的影响.本文的研究结果表明,经济制裁将降低目标国家的价值链参与度和国内产业附加值,使目标国家向价值链上游移动,转变为资源出口型国家.更长期限和更大规模的制裁更显著地降低了目标国家的国内附加值.制裁对附加值的影响是按照转口附加值,加工附加值和国内附加值来传导的.此外,在使用工具变量法,并考虑双重差分法和行业的异质性等设定条件后,本文的基本实证结果依然稳健.

This paper investigates the impact of economic sanctions on the value added and global value chain position of the target countries,based on cross-country input-output tables and economic sanctions data from 1990–2018.The findings of this paper show that economic sanctions reduce the value chain participation and domestic value added of the target countries,moving them up the value chain and transforming them into resource-exporting countries.Longer duration and larger scale sanctions more significantly reduce the domestic value added of the target country.The impact of sanctions on value added is transmitted according to foreign value added,indirect value added,and domestic value added.In addition,the basic empirical results of this paper remain robust after using the instrumental variables approach and considering the conditions set by the difference in difference method and industry heterogeneity.